42 Comments
Jan 14Liked by David Turver

Another depressing essay on the economic and scientific madness and ineptitude of our politicians. The public would be aghast if they knew but the relentless propaganda makes it very difficult for reason and reality to prevail (or even get a voice). My Iron Law of Govt strikes again.... Everything they do is net negative for Society at large. Their interjections into the market always deliver diametrically opposite outcomes from those they claim to want. Always.

You ask "In what world does it make economic sense for consumers to pay elevated subsidies to generate wind and solar power, and then pay people overseas to take the same power off our hands?" Answer - in the world of eco-zealots and grifters and incompetent politicians.

When the energy system collapses (as it surely will) not one of these politicians, NGOs, or corporations will apologise. Not one. If you don't believe me just look at the Post Office scandal unfolding right now.

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Thanks David. Another detailed, mind-blowing expose of yet another aspect of the Net Zero scam, highlighting the progressive destruction of our previously robust, secure and remarkably efficient energy infrastructure via the treasonous and insane actions of our politicians. I hope Toby Young picks up on this article and publishes it in the Daily Sceptic to ensure wider coverage, but it really deserves to be in the main stream media via the Telegraph and Daily Mail. It is vital that the general public are made fully aware of this scam.

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Jan 14·edited Jan 14Liked by David Turver

They knew this back in 2005, long before these interconnectors were built.

Denmark had loads of wind power, but no storage. So it sold energy to Scandinavia, which is blessed with hydro. Scandinavia could hoard their hydro by using Danish wind, and then sell hydro back to Denmark when there was no wind.

A great trade? Not really, because Denmark was selling cheap (it could do nothing with the surplus energy), and buying expensive. So Scandinavia was laughing all the way to the bank.

Why Wind Works For Denmark.

https://docs.wind-watch.org/sharman-winddenmark.pdf

This again highlights the need for more stored backup. The UK needs a minimum of 20,000 gwh of stored backup, but we only have 10 gwh (Dinorwig). The Royal Society said we may need 100,000 gwh.

Wind and solar need stored backup energy to work, but this will double or triple the cost of renewables. They cannot claim renewables are cheap, without including all the costs. The present ‘low cost’ of renewables is due to them living parasitically off gas and coal as the backup sources. Include the extra cost of building 700 new Dinorwig power stations, before saying renewables are cheap.

Ralph

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Jan 14Liked by David Turver

Further to the idiot Alok Sharma blowing up Ferrybridge, here is the idiot Nicola Sturgeon six months later blowing up Longannet: https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/longannet-chimney-demolition/.

At the time of the Ferrybridge demolition (Aug 2021), Sharma said coal supplied less than 2% of UK electricity. In freezing, dark, windless December 2023 coal still managed to supply 2% of UK electricity to help keep the lights on (alongside gas and interconnector supplies), as recorded by Jaime Jessop: https://jaimejessop.substack.com/p/cold-weather-in-britain-lays-bare.

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Jan 14Liked by David Turver

The UK must embark on a coal / gas transition to a completely nuclear powered future - it is the only sensible, affordable solution to our energy crisis (net zero is a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist)

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Jan 15Liked by David Turver

Another example of why there should be a separation of business and state. Any business that pays a consumer to take his product is an organization pretending to "run a business". Like the consumerist addiction to all things "free" (free shipping!, same day delivery!, 60% off promo code!, get your's before they're gone!, everyone is raving about these!, ...) business has become another street addict to governments handing out OPM (other people's money). Which, like opium, is very addictive. And also like opium, has been used by governments for centuries to subvert autonomy, independence and self determination.

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Wow. This is really good analysis. Great job.

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Jan 14Liked by David Turver

Another great analysis David, with further great insight from comments -

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Jan 14Liked by David Turver

Interconnector metered flows at 5 minute (and 30 minute) resolution are available here

https://bmrs.elexon.co.uk/interconnector-flows

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Jan 14Liked by David Turver

SOSO interconnector trade details are available here

https://bmrs.elexon.co.uk/soso-trade-prices

I see today the Irish are being asked to pay top prices to keep their lights on. In fact, the Irish lose out more than we do, because they also have to dump their wind surpluses at fire sale prices. They use the UK as their balancing mechanism.

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Last week for a few hours one evening, the electricity in our street was switched off due to gas workers uncovering an old electric pot end that was not so insulating. This is in the South of the UK and it was about 3 degrees outside. Candles out, gas stoves on, maybe go for a drive to somewhere with electricity. I also grew up with blackouts from time to time in Belfast as well so I knew the deal. Although those blackouts often involved a bomb. So this was much quieter.

It wasn’t a huge hardship but it also wasn’t without annoyance and having to adapt. If this was to be a regular occurrence life would be different.

The media would also blame the big “greedy” energy companies without even scratching the surface to see it has been a decades long failure of energy infrastructure planning driven largely by the cancerous belief in MMGW.

A belief that by its own standards if applied to say Boeing 737 MAX 9’s would have not stopped flying them irrespective of flying doors. And would have forced more people to fly on such planes or even worse paid for empty planes to fly around at 10 times the cost.

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Jan 14Liked by David Turver

As i understand these are used by traders/suppliers to transport energy they need to supply so they have to pay the i/c owner a fee to shift xMW at half hourly slices. The i/c operator auctions the capacity in quite a convoluted way but I wonder if the prices you've used on your analysis reflects the various charges is why it perhaps goes negative. Mind you can't see what the incentive is on a trader to do this but the ESO may take a view that bleeding off excess power is cheaper than getting a windmill to switch off and have to be replaced by more expensing CCGT? I don't know but we haven't half made it over complex which gives people to exploit the system as well as it having unknown knowns' that may will bite us up the proverbial when we least expect it.

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Jan 14·edited Jan 14Liked by David Turver

I’m sure the main attraction of interconnectors to our politicians is that the imported electricity goes on the UK books as “emissions free”. It’s all part of their ruinous game of deindustrialising, forcing UK industry offshore to save CO2 emissions which then go onto the books of the rest of the world when we import the offshored goods and products instead of producing them ourselves, generating even higher global net CO2 emissions in the process, not that such emissions matter in the slightest. China, India, the Far East et al are more than happy to take our business and clearly have no intention of following suit with the West in committing Net Zero economic suicide: https://twitter.com/latimeralder/status/1738826623242174670?t=5zlMlAXXNuqLvRO2541aTg&s=19.

The recent announcements on the pending closure of Grangemouth oil refining and the running down of Port Talbot blast furnaces are further indications that things will only get worse. The “smoke and mirrors” trumpeted halving of UK CO2 emissions to date is an industrial and human tragedy which has achieved no useful purpose (certainly not as far as the global climate is concerned) and is definitely not something to brag about. Yet still the Uniparty insists on pressing ahead with the utterly impossible UN IPCC's intermediate target of 45% global CO2 emission cuts from 2010 levels by 2030, towards utterly unaffordable and unattainable Net Zero by 2050: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2023/10/13/michael-kelly-the-green-energy-net-zero-plan-will-require-a-command-economy/

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ISTR reading 15 to 20 years ago a similar analysis of the Danish wind system.... in high wind times they paid Nordpool (?) to take surplus electricity off their hands (and largely Norway saved hydro water), but in low wind times they paid top dollar for Norway to release more hydro downhill. Wind wasn’t displacing much coal generation and reducing CO2 emissions either.

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The interconnector data you have used only relates to trades conducted by NGESO largely for balancing purposes, though I think it excludes emergency balancing mechanism actions such as when they paid nearly £10,000/MWh to the Belgians via NEMO, in reality to maintain contracted exports to France, while claiming it was to keep the lights on in London. It only accounts for a fraction of the overall interconnector trade.

Arrangements do vary by interconnector, but some allow capacity to be reserved ahead of time subject to use it or lose it rules which allows electricity traders with presence at both ends to lock in arbitrage profits in futures and forward markets (which will also entail a forex hedge). Interconnectors net off forward and reverse flow transactions so that the physical flow is in one direction on each interconnector. Contracts to buy and sell power at each end of the interconnector are put into general clearing (in the UK case via Exelon), so if there is bidirectional trade there is no attribution of particular trades with the actual flow. As gate closure approaches it may be more profitable for a trader to reverse a previous transaction if it turns out that the relative prices between markets flip. This is the main reason why there is bidirectional trade for the same period on the same interconnector, and the profit incentive encourages arbitrage trade, at least until the interconnectorcapacity us fully take, at which point no further arbitrage can occur and market prices at either end can diverge substantially, rather than being constrained by the cost of using the interconnector (loss and use fees) and arbitrage. If an interconnector looks to be fully committed, transit payment costs rise to swallow some of the arbitrage profit for the additional benefit of the interconnector business.

National Grid's trade motivations on interconnectors are often to do with getting a less constrained transmission pattern within the UK, which is not visible to the market at large because we don't have zonal/locational pricing. Sometimes it takes the form of emergency balancing actions. Of course if we had generating capacity in the right locations such trade would be unnecessary.

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I’m from the US so don’t know details about how the UK system works. Is it cheaper for the grid to purchase excess wind power for low or negative price and resell for a slightly negative price than to pay wind farms to curtail.

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