What no-one has considered in all these fancy cost calculations is market demand, it appears that the “Big Brains” have ignored the fact that the number of manufacturers for key infrastructure equipment is finite and limited, the West is driving the rush to decarbonise its Energy and therefore those manufacturers are under pressure to supply- whenever this market demand happens, regardless of what industry, prices always rise - if you want it, you will pay for it. The supply of a key component such as HV cable has full order books until 2035, even if you wanted to build a new production facility you are three years late- demand has beaten you and any/all new players entering the market are going to arrive in time to keep prices higher than currently being priced in- that has not been discussed by any of the “Big Brains”, couple that with the already destructive decarbonisation of heavy industry in the West and anyone will very quickly realise that. Cost inflation driven by demand, shortages, distance of transportation will make any costing’s a nonsense.
Net Zero is Not Zero, it will be a £5trillion debt that the future generations will have to live with (and that is on top of the existing £2.6trillion). Turkeys never vote Yes to Christmas.
Indeed its farcical that the grid will be decarbonised by 2035 but 2030 is sheer fantasy. Even if you had the money the supply chain can't deliver as you say with another fundamental constraint being the offshore installation vessels needed for the latest generation of 15MW machines being booked up for years ahead. The other thing that i find gauling is no one ever calls out that the majority of the equipment comes from overseas suppliers and to suggest Britain is leading the world in offshore wind is an outright lie.
"Energy Policy is not front and centre of this election campaign."
It should be. More than the failing NHS, more than uncontrolled legal and illegal immigration even, the availability of abundant, affordable energy is critical to the healthy functioning of society and the efficient running of a modern economy. The Cons have spent 14 years deliberately and seriously putting at risk our energy security via their obsession with weather dependent 'renewables' and pushing up costs by imposing Green levies to pay for those NOT CHEAP renewables plus associated infrastructure. Mad Marxist Ed intends to hit the ground running where he left off in 2008 and take us the final mile along the insane route to Nut Zero. A Labour government is an existential risk to the UK. It will likely drive away any remaining investment in North Sea oil and gas, thus making us completely dependent upon imports - which we WILL need in order to provide 24/7 backup to our shiny new 'best in the world' fleet of offshore and onshore marvels of Mediaeval technology harvesting Boris the Red's infamous "sea breezes". Not forgetting those ideologically Green fields of solar panels where sheep may safely graze the poor quality grass which just about manages to survive in the shade, but where food crops won't grow. A Labour government probably won't even build the necessary new fleet of CCGTs required to keep the lights on, so they will go out, increasingly often, in the next 5-10 years, along with the light of British civilisation.
What may put the brakes on Millibrains mission is that Reeves has Growth front centre and back as the only way she can provide funding to sort the NHS, Education etc which if they don't they will be as irrelevant as the Torys have become. So my take is this bravado to keep the Greenies on side and will be watered down by a dose of reality when they are in power.
"It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so."
This has been the official policy of the UK government for many years now using the circular route of academics to think tanks to academics to think tanks "showing" that all these Big Shiny Ideas are possible. Which they aren't.
The real issue is that we have already crossed a line of no return into serious energy restrictions with the renewable nonsense. But if Labour go full in without any thought the recovery time will be 30 years or more rather than say 15 (to get a replacement power station and limp along).
We have been Clegged in our energy security. Those nuclear powers stations that you laughed about not building in the early 2000s would be here now and producing a very different energy despatchability capability. But sure he's at Facebook now so ha ha on us.
The power cuts will start early 2030’s on current net zero trajectory - existing CCGT and nuclear will have closed at EOL (our last coal fired station closes this year) - hence why NG / Ofgem etc are pushing DSR and punitive ToU tariffs because as each year currently passes on mission net zero by 2050, generation is falling further behind demand
Superb analysis and dissection David - like the Ember report, the Aurora fantasy is just stuffed with faulty data, errors, misleading statements and downright deceitful spin
Like all alarmist drivel, it relies on dodgy made up nonsense to keep the net zero scam alive, based on the WEF mandated AGW hoax
Since 2021, constraint payments alone to inept, engineeringly incompetent wind parks, have been over £2Bn, paid for by consumers on bills - Uniparty blue are desperate to move green subsidies from electricity bills, onto gas bills, or general taxation, because they can no longer hide the embarrassing costs of renewable power sources
Aurora financial data is flawed but the tenant of the report that a net zero grid is totally unfeasible in 2030 or 2035 is the real message and totally undermines Millibrains rhetoric but nobody in the mainstream media is challenging him so it goes under the radar. I remain confident that reality will win out in the end and the one attribute all politicians have is to spin there way out of failure.
Worth noting that Aurora are one of the sock puppet consultancies much favoured by the CCC, NGESO, OFGEM and BEIS/DESNZ. Here's a recent podcast from them with Alice Delahunty, part of the Fintan Slye Irish harem at NGESO, now President of NGET for the English/Welsh grid
The plan is to get the network investment first, ahead of things that might be connected to it. Shocking to hear that already the would be pipeline of projects exceeds 400GW.
Shocking that Aurora failed to ask the hard questions, like is spending £200bn on the grid really a good investment? Aren't their cheaper ways to provide future power supply than renewables plus grid plus backup plus interconnectors? What happens if your costly network proves to be redundant e.g. because of cheap SMRs? Is it a good thing that NGESO has been in charge of FES?
In some respects this is what should have happened a decade ago as the amount of money pissed up the wall on constraint payments is down to the grid reinforcement not being an integral part of developing new wind farms particularly in North Scotland. Problem now is NG or actually the ESO now its been detached from NG flipping the other way and proposing a buildout to cater for renewables that may never come. The electricity industry has form for this as it massively over built generation in the 60's based on flawed forecasts that make FES look professional fortunately their credibility got saved over the AGR fiasco. If Millibrain was to do anything useful he would create an overall body that planned generation and transmission to deliver least cost to consumer.
All the Net Zero costings seem to assume that if we can just “get to” Net Zero, everything will be fine. They forget that all their so-called renewables will end up as toxic, non-recyclable junk when they reach the end of their short service lives, especially offshore wind, adding decommissioning costs to replacement costs ad infinitum.
David. Thanks again for a great piece of techno-investigation, sadly lacking from the main stream media whose role is to coral us into compliance with this patent insanity. The Policy Industrial complex of universities, think tanks, NGO’s and politicians are spreading wilful misinformation, as the brilliant Batya Ungar-Sargon argues in her recent book. They then have the gall to finger climate and energy policy critical information by real experts as misinformation. They use crooked nuance, evasion and spin to gaslight the population away from real energy, with real transparent costs and benefits. But there is no spinning a power cut (though advanced demand deferral discounts are a form of it). People see power interruptions clearly. Then the shit will hit the turbine blades.
The Aurora study also ignores the cost of curtailment which increases as more renewables are added.
Storage (battery or hydrogen) does not soak up all of the curtailment because it cannot be economical unless it reaches a certain number of operating hours per year. For example, operating hydrolysers on renewables power at 50% capacity requires a system that is curtailing 30% of its power.
So you incur a 30% increase in the cost of renewables before you can even think about doing anything with hydrogen.
What no-one has considered in all these fancy cost calculations is market demand, it appears that the “Big Brains” have ignored the fact that the number of manufacturers for key infrastructure equipment is finite and limited, the West is driving the rush to decarbonise its Energy and therefore those manufacturers are under pressure to supply- whenever this market demand happens, regardless of what industry, prices always rise - if you want it, you will pay for it. The supply of a key component such as HV cable has full order books until 2035, even if you wanted to build a new production facility you are three years late- demand has beaten you and any/all new players entering the market are going to arrive in time to keep prices higher than currently being priced in- that has not been discussed by any of the “Big Brains”, couple that with the already destructive decarbonisation of heavy industry in the West and anyone will very quickly realise that. Cost inflation driven by demand, shortages, distance of transportation will make any costing’s a nonsense.
Net Zero is Not Zero, it will be a £5trillion debt that the future generations will have to live with (and that is on top of the existing £2.6trillion). Turkeys never vote Yes to Christmas.
Indeed its farcical that the grid will be decarbonised by 2035 but 2030 is sheer fantasy. Even if you had the money the supply chain can't deliver as you say with another fundamental constraint being the offshore installation vessels needed for the latest generation of 15MW machines being booked up for years ahead. The other thing that i find gauling is no one ever calls out that the majority of the equipment comes from overseas suppliers and to suggest Britain is leading the world in offshore wind is an outright lie.
"Energy Policy is not front and centre of this election campaign."
It should be. More than the failing NHS, more than uncontrolled legal and illegal immigration even, the availability of abundant, affordable energy is critical to the healthy functioning of society and the efficient running of a modern economy. The Cons have spent 14 years deliberately and seriously putting at risk our energy security via their obsession with weather dependent 'renewables' and pushing up costs by imposing Green levies to pay for those NOT CHEAP renewables plus associated infrastructure. Mad Marxist Ed intends to hit the ground running where he left off in 2008 and take us the final mile along the insane route to Nut Zero. A Labour government is an existential risk to the UK. It will likely drive away any remaining investment in North Sea oil and gas, thus making us completely dependent upon imports - which we WILL need in order to provide 24/7 backup to our shiny new 'best in the world' fleet of offshore and onshore marvels of Mediaeval technology harvesting Boris the Red's infamous "sea breezes". Not forgetting those ideologically Green fields of solar panels where sheep may safely graze the poor quality grass which just about manages to survive in the shade, but where food crops won't grow. A Labour government probably won't even build the necessary new fleet of CCGTs required to keep the lights on, so they will go out, increasingly often, in the next 5-10 years, along with the light of British civilisation.
I propose DESNZ is renamed simply DES - net zero is a WEF ordained scam, driven by the AGW hoax and has no reality in energy
Better still, DEI - the Department of Energy Insecurity. Staffed exclusively via diversity, equity and inclusion appointments.
What may put the brakes on Millibrains mission is that Reeves has Growth front centre and back as the only way she can provide funding to sort the NHS, Education etc which if they don't they will be as irrelevant as the Torys have become. So my take is this bravado to keep the Greenies on side and will be watered down by a dose of reality when they are in power.
As the quote goes:
"It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so."
This has been the official policy of the UK government for many years now using the circular route of academics to think tanks to academics to think tanks "showing" that all these Big Shiny Ideas are possible. Which they aren't.
The real issue is that we have already crossed a line of no return into serious energy restrictions with the renewable nonsense. But if Labour go full in without any thought the recovery time will be 30 years or more rather than say 15 (to get a replacement power station and limp along).
We have been Clegged in our energy security. Those nuclear powers stations that you laughed about not building in the early 2000s would be here now and producing a very different energy despatchability capability. But sure he's at Facebook now so ha ha on us.
When will the power cuts start to happen? And who will be held to account? (Expecting the answer “no-one” to that!)
The power cuts will start early 2030’s on current net zero trajectory - existing CCGT and nuclear will have closed at EOL (our last coal fired station closes this year) - hence why NG / Ofgem etc are pushing DSR and punitive ToU tariffs because as each year currently passes on mission net zero by 2050, generation is falling further behind demand
Superb analysis and dissection David - like the Ember report, the Aurora fantasy is just stuffed with faulty data, errors, misleading statements and downright deceitful spin
Like all alarmist drivel, it relies on dodgy made up nonsense to keep the net zero scam alive, based on the WEF mandated AGW hoax
Since 2021, constraint payments alone to inept, engineeringly incompetent wind parks, have been over £2Bn, paid for by consumers on bills - Uniparty blue are desperate to move green subsidies from electricity bills, onto gas bills, or general taxation, because they can no longer hide the embarrassing costs of renewable power sources
Aurora financial data is flawed but the tenant of the report that a net zero grid is totally unfeasible in 2030 or 2035 is the real message and totally undermines Millibrains rhetoric but nobody in the mainstream media is challenging him so it goes under the radar. I remain confident that reality will win out in the end and the one attribute all politicians have is to spin there way out of failure.
Minor typo:
"Sneddon Law onshore windfarm recently came online with a reported spend of £50m to deliver 30GW of installed capacity. " <== should be 30MW
Fixed, thank you.
Seddon Law is 30MW, not 30GW (typo).
Worth noting that Aurora are one of the sock puppet consultancies much favoured by the CCC, NGESO, OFGEM and BEIS/DESNZ. Here's a recent podcast from them with Alice Delahunty, part of the Fintan Slye Irish harem at NGESO, now President of NGET for the English/Welsh grid
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/energy-unplugged-by-aurora/id1453416874
The plan is to get the network investment first, ahead of things that might be connected to it. Shocking to hear that already the would be pipeline of projects exceeds 400GW.
Fixed, thank you.
It must be a coincidence that the National Grid wants the money spent on their own network first.
Shocking that Aurora failed to ask the hard questions, like is spending £200bn on the grid really a good investment? Aren't their cheaper ways to provide future power supply than renewables plus grid plus backup plus interconnectors? What happens if your costly network proves to be redundant e.g. because of cheap SMRs? Is it a good thing that NGESO has been in charge of FES?
In some respects this is what should have happened a decade ago as the amount of money pissed up the wall on constraint payments is down to the grid reinforcement not being an integral part of developing new wind farms particularly in North Scotland. Problem now is NG or actually the ESO now its been detached from NG flipping the other way and proposing a buildout to cater for renewables that may never come. The electricity industry has form for this as it massively over built generation in the 60's based on flawed forecasts that make FES look professional fortunately their credibility got saved over the AGR fiasco. If Millibrain was to do anything useful he would create an overall body that planned generation and transmission to deliver least cost to consumer.
All the Net Zero costings seem to assume that if we can just “get to” Net Zero, everything will be fine. They forget that all their so-called renewables will end up as toxic, non-recyclable junk when they reach the end of their short service lives, especially offshore wind, adding decommissioning costs to replacement costs ad infinitum.
It’s sad that as long ago as 2009 the late, great Christopher Booker was writing about the infeasibility of achieving the Climate Change Act targets using weather-dependent renewables, yet here we are 15 years later … https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1199535/CHRISTOPHER-BOOKER-Wind-farms-monument-age-leaders-collectively-went-heads.html.
Gordon Hughes has written on a similar subject today.
https://cloudwisdom.substack.com/p/labours-energy-promises-vision-and
David. Thanks again for a great piece of techno-investigation, sadly lacking from the main stream media whose role is to coral us into compliance with this patent insanity. The Policy Industrial complex of universities, think tanks, NGO’s and politicians are spreading wilful misinformation, as the brilliant Batya Ungar-Sargon argues in her recent book. They then have the gall to finger climate and energy policy critical information by real experts as misinformation. They use crooked nuance, evasion and spin to gaslight the population away from real energy, with real transparent costs and benefits. But there is no spinning a power cut (though advanced demand deferral discounts are a form of it). People see power interruptions clearly. Then the shit will hit the turbine blades.
The Aurora study also ignores the cost of curtailment which increases as more renewables are added.
Storage (battery or hydrogen) does not soak up all of the curtailment because it cannot be economical unless it reaches a certain number of operating hours per year. For example, operating hydrolysers on renewables power at 50% capacity requires a system that is curtailing 30% of its power.
So you incur a 30% increase in the cost of renewables before you can even think about doing anything with hydrogen.