Political Support for Net Zero is Cracking

Politicians, quangos, commentators, corporations and the public are having second thoughts about Net Zero.

Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway
Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
The battle outside ragin'
Will soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'

Bob Dylan

Introduction

Last week’s article about the pillars supporting net zero crumbling was mainly about the scientific observations, failed predictions and poor strategy. However, as I was researching and writing the article, I could not help but notice that something had changed. A dam had burst, the Rubicon had been crossed and lines in the sand had been washed away. A steady stream of senior figures had started to cast doubt on the Net Zero agenda.

The political wind seemed to change when the Tories unexpectedly won the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election with their candidate running on an anti-ULEZ platform. Previously, criticism of Net Zero had been limited to a few heretics that true believers tried to excommunicate from polite society. Now, criticism of Net Zero is going mainstream with politicians straining to win the new back-pedalling race. It is a joy to see, so let’s walk through the recent announcements from senior figures across parties, quangos, companies and commentariat. We will also take a quick look at the tantrums from the true believers, furious that their social positions at the pinnacle of the climate regime might be coming to an end.

Conservative Net Zero Heretics

First out of the blocks was Michael Gove who said that Net Zero should not be a religious crusade. He also said the plan to ban gas boilers should be reviewed. This is the same Michael Gove who a few years ago was photographed applauding Greta Thunberg.

The following day, Jacob Rees-Mogg urged his Tory colleagues to scale back net zero to win the next election. He was critical of ULEZ and the 2030 ban on petrol and diesel cars. He also wants to rewrite the Energy Bill to remove the planned emissions-based restrictions on landlords.

This was followed by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak casting doubt on 2030 petrol and diesel car ban. In a more recent interview the PM was also keen to differentiate the Conservative Party from the Opposition by indicating support for new oil and gas licences in the North Sea. He has also indicated opposition to the ULEZ scheme in London and a review of Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs) across the country. However, Rishi appear to contradict his earlier doubt about the petrol and diesel car ban by saying “the 2030 target has been policy for a long time and continues to be.” He has also said he wants to achieve Net Zero in a “flexible and proportionate way. He is also committed to spending £20bn on carbon capture. This week, Sunak also announced the decision to grant 100 new oil and gas drilling licenses in the North Sea. It seems as though he is trying to hedge his bets, rather than having a full change of heart on Net Zero.

Former Home Secretary, Priti Patel, released from the collective responsibility of a Cabinet role, has been even more strident, calling for a pause on all net zero targets. She criticised the “corrosive culture” of pursuing time-limited goals, saying voters are being left behind. Here is a key quote from her interview:

“Now if we want a sensible conversation about climate and the impact of climate change, recognising there are problems is one thing, but making sure that we have the tools and the ability that doesn’t impose costs and taxes on ordinary people, this is the space we have to be in. And we’re not – we’re not in that space at all.”

Ms Patel also took aim at local authorities, concerned about money being wasted on Net Zero initiatives:

“My county council is talking about net zero, all local authorities are. Now they can talk about it but stop spending our money, quite frankly, when public funds need to be targeted and spent on issues on public service delivery, first and foremost – statutory services.”

Lord Hammond was Chancellor under Theresa May when Net Zero was enshrined in law in 2019. To be fair, he did warn at the time that net zero would cost more than £1 trillion. Now in the House of Lords, he says successive Prime Ministers have been systematically dishonest about the cost of the project. He warned of the “cross-party disease” of politicians not being straight with voters and that no one in British politics is “understanding these sorts of numbers.” Despite this stinging criticism, he insisted he backed Net Zero.

Business secretary, Kemi Badenoch has also expressed concern that keeping the 2030 net zero car ban will cost jobs.

Lord Frost has been a Net Zero sceptic for some time. He gave the keynote speech the Global Warming Policy Foundation back in May 2023. He clearly stated then that he did not think Net Zero by 2050 was an achievable goal at reasonable cost. He has also warned that Net Zero zealots are treating the public like fools.

Labour Starting to Dissent from Net Zero Consensus

Clearly, the political wind has started to change direction in the Tory Party, but what about Labour? Perhaps the most surprising statement came from the spinmeister himself, Sir Tony Blair. He warned against asking the UK public to do a huge amount to tackle climate change when our efforts would be dwarfed by the actions of China. He said:

“Don’t ask us to do a huge amount when frankly whatever we do in Britain is not really going to impact climate change. The number one issue today – and this is where Britain could play a part – is how do you finance the energy transition?

“Because, basically, the developed world’s emissions are going down, but the developing world’s are going up. These countries have got to grow, so how do you finance the transition? Secondly, how do you accelerate the technology?”

…

“Well, it’s the single biggest global challenge, right, and Britain should play its part in that,” he said. “But its part frankly is going to be less to do with Britain’s emissions. I mean, one year’s rise in China’s emissions would outscore the whole of Britain’s emissions for a year.”

Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer has also said the party must face up to the electoral damage of ULEZ, pressurising London Mayor Sadiq Khan to reverse his planned policy. However, before the by-election, he did not seem able to make up his mind. On the 6^th of July he said it was right to criticise ULEZ, but he flipped the next day when he said Sadiq Khan had no choice but to extend ULEZ.

However, Shadow Energy Security and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband still has not got the memo. He is still promoting Labour’s Green Prosperity Plan that commits to decarbonising the whole electricity grid by 2030.

Quangocrats and Commentators Changing Tack on Net Zero

However, it is not just politicians casting doubt on the Net Zero agenda. The High Priest CEO of the Climate Change Cult Committee (CCC), Chris Stark  has said heat pumps are not ready for the mass market and that 2030 could be too soon for the ban on petrol and diesel cars. However, he did indicate that the CCC had recommended 2032 and 2035 would also be within a reasonable range. Perhaps he has new-found freedom now that Lord Deben has stepped down as Chair of the CCC.

The new head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Professor Jim Skea criticised climate doom-mongers, saying “the world won’t end if it gets more than 1.5 degrees warmer.”

A range of commentators have also started to cast doubt on the Net Zero agenda, even though they have not really covered climate or energy policy before. Examples include economic commentator Liam Halligan pointing out that renewables are not cheap; Madeline Grant taking aim at net zero activists claiming to be on the right side of history and Sherrelle Jacobs stating Keir Starmer is about to be humiliated by the global retreat from net zero.

Even Janan Ganesh, who is usually impeccably bien pensant has written in the FT that we are witnessing the beginning of the end of Britain’s net zero consensus. He warned that according to a recent poll from YouGov public support for Net Zero is paper thin. Ganesh also went on to compare the politics of Net Zero to the politics of the EU debate in the early 2000’s. Back then it was acceptable to say “in Europe but not run by Europe” but taboo to reject the EU outright. It has now become acceptable to criticise the Net Zero agenda, but not yet socially acceptable to reject Net Zero outright. He suggests it might only be a matter of time before politicians and commentators call for Net Zero to be scrapped entirely.

Corporates Cast Doubt on Net Zero Policies

Even corporations are starting to challenge the agenda. For instance, Labour peer Lord Haughey whose company supplies heat pumps, said they are unsuitable for the Scottish climate. Jon Butterworth, Chief Executive of National Gas has said heat pumps are only for the “privileged.” He also struggled to see how flats in London could be electrified with air-sourced heat pumps.

The times certainly are changing.

Temper Tantrums from Net Zero True Believers

However, the true believers are not going down without a fight. There has been an outbreak of temper tantrums among the true believers in the Net Zero agenda.

Chris Skidmore who recently conducted an “independent” review of Net Zero said Rishi Sunak was on the “wrong side of history” to announce the new drilling licenses in the North Sea. This is slightly odd because it might give a bigger market for the Emissions Capture Company, who pay Skidmore a hefty salary. Naturalist Chris Packham also hit out at the decision to allow new drilling licenses in the North Sea as a “dark day for life on earth.”

Tory peer Zac Goldsmith said that Michael Gove “must be a monster to attack green policies.” George Monbiot, who has yet to find a hair-shirt that is uncomfortable enough, raged that Rishi Sunak will “sell out the planet to the dirtiest bidders.”

Perhaps the biggest catastrophist is UN chief Antonio Guterres who was perhaps detecting a change in the political wind when he declared that the world has moved to the era “global boiling.”

Note how all their arguments are emotional, talking about selling out, the wrong side of history, dark days and even boiling. Such extreme rhetoric is surely counter-productive, particularly as bad case of asymptomatic global warming seems to be afflicting Britain this summer.

What Do Voters Think About Net Zero?

The YouGov poll that Janan Ganesh referred to showed that support for the idea of Net Zero was supported by 71% of the population with only 20% opposing.  However, support for specific policies fell away rapidly. With 47:42 opposing the ban on petrol and diesel cars by 2030. As Figure 1 shows, 60% of people either oppose Net Zero outright or think that policies to reduce carbon emissions should only be introduced if they do not result in additional costs for ordinary people. Only 27% thought policies should be introduced even if they result in additional costs. Opposition outweighed support across all demographic segments they track.

Figure 1 - YouGov Poll on attitudes to Net Zero Policies

The website Conservative Home has conducted a survey of Tory party members and this also shows very strong opposition to Net Zero policies such as Low Traffic Neighbourhoods and the ban on petrol and diesel cars from 2030. A whopping 66% also thought that there is no climate emergency.

Conclusions

It is certainly encouraging that the political wind has changed direction. It is also interesting that now it is socially acceptable for mainstream commentators to cast doubt on the Net Zero agenda. However, no action has yet been taken to dismantle Net Zero policies or legislation. So far, it is simply a softening of rhetoric and not an actual change of policy. In fact just a few days ago, the Government announced a £22m increase in the budget allocated to renewables in Allocation Round 5 (AR5). Plus, granting new North Sea licenses is not the same as actually approving an exploration or development programme.

However, now that the cracks are appearing, it is important that we drive wedges into the cracks and hammer them home so that the Net Zero edifice collapses. It is surely untenable that any Government can continue with these policies in defiance of such strong public opposition. Eventually, physics, economics and democracy will triumph over political dogma. We can only hope the eventual victory comes before too much more damage is done.

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