41 Comments
Aug 7, 2023Liked by David Turver

These Govt Green Energy activists will stop at nothing to promote their pet beliefs. I've been in construction for 30+yrs and I don't care what major infrastructure project you are tackling the cost savings being predicted are ridiculous. Everyone in the UK has experienced massive increases to their energy costs and it all coincides with expanding renewables Final thought to ponder... when was the last time the Govt was able to estimate the costs of infrastructure work to any degree of moderate accuracy? Answer - NEVER. Great piece of work David.

Expand full comment

There is a simple way to gauge the cost of Weather-Dependent "Renewables". Take comparative costs say from the US EIA and divide them by the productivity they achieve. That gives you a true comparative cost of providing a unit of power to the grid.

The simple sums which are optimistic for "Renewables" are shown here

https://edmhdotme.wpcomstaging.com/a-comparative-costing-model-for-power-generation-technologies/

and here

https://edmhdotme.wpcomstaging.com/a-few-graphs-say-it-all-for-renewables/

Expand full comment
Aug 7, 2023·edited Aug 22, 2023Liked by David Turver

For the last couple of years, renewable enthusiasts have been trumpeting that the levelized cost of electricity is now competitive, and sometimes lower for renewables compared to fossil fuel generation. This completely misses the elephant in the room: intermittency.

Interruptible (such as renewable) utilities are typically worth 1/2 or less of dispatchable, on-demand service. I.e., LCOE for renewable generation may be about the same as for dispatchable fossil generation, but it needs to be MUCH lower to be truly competitive.

Alternatively, LCOE for intermittent sources such as renewables should also incorporate the full carrying cost of the dispatchable facilities required to back them up. Then LCOE would be a reasonable basis for comparison.

Expand full comment
Aug 13, 2023Liked by David Turver

And If I may?

The costs would be even lower for conventional generation if the subsidies were taken away from RE Wind. It's the protective subsidies that "artificially" reduce the true costs. It is designed to mislead and is a fraud.

Expand full comment
Aug 8, 2023Liked by David Turver

The dog that didn’t bark in the night.

According to the CFD Auction timetable, today, August 8th:

Delivery Body issues a ‘Notice of Auction’ inviting qualified applicants to submit sealed bids

The ‘Notice of Auction’ will specify that an auction is to be held and the deadline for the submission of sealed bids

There has been no such notice publicised. That means that there are insufficient potential bids to merit an auction. All applicants will therefore get the full Administrative Strike Price for their technology. This is likely to mean very small volumes of expensive tidal (£270/MWh in today’s money) and floating wind (£155/MWh in today’s money), and perhaps a few solar projects if they can get a grid connection, but even these must be in doubt. It increases the probability that there are no bids at all for ordinary offshore wind.

Expand full comment
Sep 8, 2023Liked by David Turver

You have to laugh, wind is now so cheap, that no one bid in the government's CfD auction.

https://news.sky.com/story/offshore-wind-power-warning-as-government-auction-flops-12956522

"Several companies, including the UK's largest renewables generator SSE, have ruled themselves out of the auction, with one source saying the number of potential bidders was "between two and zero, with expectations at the lower end of that range".

So not only was it not cheap before this, its rapidly getting more expensive rather rapidly.

Expand full comment
Aug 26, 2023Liked by David Turver

Excellent piece of analysis and hopefully will help fuel the groundswell of opinion and spark a debate about how much we want to pay to achieve net zero or if we even want to go there. Im pretty sure the lauded goals of 50GW offshore wind by 2030 and net zero power generation are now dead and we will see them quietly disappearing. It wont happen overnight as politicians having committed themselves to net zero have to slowly wind back from it even Caroline Lucas is targeting energy usage now as she knows unreliables are never going to be cost effective.

Expand full comment

Have a look at LCOE values for offshore wind in the U.S. It’s much higher than onshore and for good reason--higher construction costs.

Expand full comment

Is there any justification given for the increase in load factor? 🤨

Expand full comment

Excellent analysis as usual. Thank you. Eigenvalues has become my go to website for the latest info on the Net Zero scam.

Expand full comment

I've just had a thought. Could you do something on energy prices normalised to GDP/Capita and economic growth?

I suspect their is a very strong link between % of renewables, high energy prices per capita income and slow to zero growth

Expand full comment

I found this, released from BEIS published 1st August on the projected costs of generation and I'd value David doing an article on this

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1179359/electricity-generation-costs-2023.pdf

Having done a very quick read, the following strikes me between the eyes.

1. The reason your bills are so high is that while CCGT gas is priced at £114/MWH, £60/MWH is carbon taxes on gas generation. It doesn't say what gas price its used, but the gas price is not much above 2021 prices now when generation costs were only about £60/MWH

2. They are pricing Onshore and Offshore wind at the same price now of £44/MWH, which seems to blow out the labour party claim that onshore is much cheaper.

3. Most striking of all they seem to think that in real terms that wind and solar will not get any more expensive than it is now at £44/MWH which seems a complete fantasy given that from previous auctions Vattenfall and BP have recently now withdrawn from a previous auction citing costs have gone up by over 40%.

4. They have priced in for the first time CCGT converted to hydrogen generation in a comparison of "peaking technologies" where miraculously the cost of H class CCGT comes in at £70-90/MWH which is about the price level I had in mind and contradicts its earlier £114/MWH for base load generation which utterly no sense to me, peaking plant by definition runs at less that peak efficiency where as base load does.

Very optimistically IMHO 100% Hydrogen via conventional gas power station comes in at £100-120/MWH so about 38% more expensive than using natural gas.

Personally I can't see it being cheaper than about £220/MWH

Another day on fantasy island for the government.

Expand full comment

Very clever. Let's assume your numbers are good. But none of your numbers include the true cost for the energy used.

Let's say someone sells you a can of additive for your car that gets you an improved gas mileage that pays twice over for the cost of the additive. But let's also say that additive destroys your car's engine after only several cans. Would you again buy that additive?

This is the case with energy and the nation. Don't you agree that fossil fuels have brought us climate change, which is now causing human death and destruction to irreplaceable ecosystems? Would you like to calculate how much money such calamity costs? If you can, please include that costs and re-write your article.

But if you're a climate change denier, you're not part of the conversation we need to have to save our society, and we don't need you. Of course, you can still rally your peanut gallery here for a while. Until multitudes of people wake up to the simple facts that you and they refuse to believe. That won't take more than a year or two.

Expand full comment

Very useful analysis, but surely this is not gaslighting, its just distortion deliberate or otherwise. Gaslighting is specifically to manipulate another person into doubting their own perceptions, experiences or understanding of events.

Expand full comment

To put the calculations about the Gas energy generation in practical terms. In the electricity bill of a UK customer, what fraction of the bill is carbon tax?

Expand full comment