20 Comments
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Gary Whitehurst's avatar

Thanks, great article. Are all network investment costs you assume directly attributable to infrastructure for net zero / clean power scenarios, or are some of those costs BAU asset maintenance, or capital spend for replacement of ageing existing network, which would have been required irrespective of the government's political targets?

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K Meister Flex's avatar

great article. one quibble: smart meters should not be included in net zero costs, even theoretically, as they are a good idea in and of themselves.

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It doesn't add up...'s avatar

To make such a claim I think you should show your reasoning that they confer benefits worth more than the costs in a normal, not net zero driven, grid. Bear in mind that the Triad system largely eliminated the evening peak by focusing on large industrial consumers. So far the bill is ~£20bn.

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Nickrl's avatar

The more the gas price reduces the more exposed the renewable is cheap mantra becomes so triumvirate of Milibrain, Starkie and Pinchback have to find alternative ruses to keep the myth alive. Be in no doubt Milibrain will push something through be it zonal pricing or playing around with where the subsides fall as he now has upside protection from winter fuel allowance being reinstated along with the ever increasing largesse of the Warm Home Discount scheme to deal with those who would be affected who can't afford it. Rayner likes it as it load the costs onto everybody else and basically if your not on benefits your earning too much in her eyes anyhow.

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Gareth Wiltshire's avatar

The better way to stay away from the fossil fuel price volatility is to follow the US model: be long gas from your own production and have a logistical moat around your supply chain (the Atlantic and Pacific oceans) that prevent high prices from importing nations impacting local prices. It’s where the UK was 30 years ago. But then policy stopped upstream investment and increased gas links to Europe and the world to replace what we used to make for ourselves.

Norway is learning the same lesson with electricity - importing high German prices into southern Norway and bringing down a government.

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Andy's avatar

Mad Milliband is now lobbying for a huge increase in gas prices by adding new taxes and cost in an attempt to double the price of gas within 2 years to allow electricity to seem more competative for heat pumps.

Milliband is a very dangerous imbecile.

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Jaime Jessop's avatar

What this means of course is that the price gap between gas and electricity continues to grow - exposing the 'renewables are cheaper and gas drives the cost of electricity' scam. Which is why Pinchbeck wants to shift some of the extra costs of electricity onto gas and why the CCC and government are so keen to get people to switch to electric heat pumps for heating/hot water or immersions for hot water and heat pumps for heating. Electrify everything and the public won't realise how much they're being ripped off using 'clean energy' compared to what they could be saving if they'd been using planet destroying gas.

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Nickrl's avatar

This has never been about saving money its all about Milibrain being able to put on his CV hes made the UK green so he gets the plumb job at the IPCC.

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It doesn't add up...'s avatar

I suppose if it can go to a railway enthusiast like Pachauri it could go to Miliband, but with Prof Jim Skea currently holding the position and Robert Watson 25 years ago it is unlikely to go to another Brit, and especially one with no scientific qualifications.

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Ian Braithwaite's avatar

Thank you David for all your efforts in setting this out for us, making representations and spreading the word. What is required of government is the realisation that to a large extent, the economy IS energy, that high energy costs are ruining our competitiveness, that these are due significantly to failing policy that is on the road to nowhere, and that the best way to stimulate growth is for the government to get its knee off the economy's neck. We wait, and wait.....

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Steve Elliott's avatar

The cost of renewables isn't a roller coaster, it's just continuously rising.

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Robin Dumpleton's avatar

Buy a Chinese diesel heater

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scouch1's avatar

They're about at the tipping point costwise now. I have a full size static caravan where I use one in winter. Great device.

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scouch1's avatar

My ex's electricity bill has gone up by £97.36. The percentage increase is 122.2%. So she would be paying £177 a month. As she's a zero hour contract carer I cover her utilities (she has the kids 50% of the time so I don't mind). If it was legal I lliterally want to beat net zero zealots like Ed Millibrain with pieces of two by four as their ideological deafness along with years of mismanagement have enabled corporations to financially brutalise the most vulnerable. Unfortunately it isn't legal to visit blunt trauma on their idiots and instead I'm buying another mangle with which to use less electricity, guess we might buy boxes of candles too at this rate.

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Ian Braithwaite's avatar

Comfort yourself with the thought that from his behaviour, it appears that any damage you wished to inflict on Ed Miliband's brain has already been done.

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scouch1's avatar

Moral and legal restrictions aside the endeavour of beating sense into him would be entirely pointless. Last time I saw him in Highgate we was sat drinking coffee outside with some friends in that unique North London bubble that insulates them from reality. I went to the same school but didn't have Marxist parents nor central heating.

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Rich C's avatar

U.K. NatGas is down 40% this year. According to Mad Ed our bills are set by the price of gas on the “international markets” 🤪

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Nickrl's avatar

Thats presumably the Day Ahead UK NBP price which isn't what they use thats some massaged forward market rate which they suppress from the raw data files saying its commercially sensitive.

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It doesn't add up...'s avatar

You can look at charts of futures by delivery month to try to estimate a hedge cost. There's a lot more OTC trade than futures. But clearly liquidity tends to be limited a longer way ahead of delivery, with the cumulated hedging (represented by the open interest line) only really picking up 3-4 months ahead.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NFN25/technical-chart?plot=BAR&volume=contract&data=DO&density=X&pricesOn=1&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&sym=NFN25&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100

OTOH I read that now 35% of consumers (up from 18% last year) are signed up to fix priced deals, which really require matched hedge volumes. What the commercial and industrial sectors are doing is also an influence.

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