Interesting strategic analysis, SPV's have their uses to see what's going on. Most surprised at the price cap, another blatant example of one law for them another for us
In keeping with the “Dummies Guide” theme, here is a comment I prepared earlier on the simplistic claims by the likes of Dale Vince and his stablemate Greg Jackson at Octopus Energy that the price of gas sets the price of electricity. Octopus Energy has just launched a live ticker tool that shows how much wind power the “broken” UK electricity grid is wasting due to curtailment. Their blurb implies that the energy price crisis is due to the price of gas: https://www.rechargenews.com/markets-and-finance/uk-s-wasted-wind-power-laid-bare-by-new-octopus-tracking-tool/2-1-1842501?zephr_sso_ott=sjrFTd:
Climate propagandists claim that the high cost of UK electricity is due to what they wrongly claim is the high cost of UK natural gas. The following explanation shows why their narrative is false.
The graph shows a level gas price from 2015 until the huge 2022-23 spike caused by the unnecessarily provoked war in Ukraine (hopefully now being spiked by President Trump), since when the price has settled back down to where it was in 2019.
The profile of this graph almost exactly mirrors that of the graph of natural gas. So yes, the wholesale price of UK electricity closely tracks the price of UK natural gas. Inconveniently for climate alarmists, the gas price is now back to where it was in 2019 whereas the domestic retail price of UK electricity has doubled since 2019 (and almost tripled since 2008, the year the Climate Change Act was enacted), as shown on this ONS Producer Price Index (PPI) interactive graph for domestic electricity: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/ghbl/ppi.
Climate propagandists like Ed Miliband are almost certainly aware that blaming high electricity prices on the market price of gas is a bogus argument and are only using it to push the road-to-disaster agenda of moving away from gas to fully embrace weather-dependent so-called renewables. They dissemble that if only we could rid the grid of gas ”supplied by dictators like Putin”, everything would be hunky dory. The reality is that the 2022-23 gas price spike was due to self-harming European sanctions against Russia and Biden blowing up the Nord Stream gas pipeline for good measure.
But is there any merit in their claim that it is irrational to set the wholesale price of electricity before it is even delivered based on the price of gas? Independent energy consultant Kathryn Porter says no in this 12-minute layman-pitched video presentation (Warning: despite her best endeavours to give a simple explanation, this topic is inherently very complicated): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNVvgD75uz8.
Basically, UK retail electricity prices are high because so many Net Zero levies and subsidies are related to and added on top of the wholesale price. Kathryn starts by explaining so-called merit order and marginal pricing which is based on the marginal cost of running of the different electricity generation types which can be called upon the national system operator. The seeming paradox is that this marginal price is close to zero for wind and solar whereas for gas it is usually the most expensive. She explains that using the advance highest price option which subsequently may not even be run is not a UK aberration but is the system used by every deregulated energy market in the world. Note also that wind and solar electricity is well remunerated through subsidy contracts unrelated to their almost zero marginal price, often above what a gas power station typically gets. She goes on to explain why any attempt to reduce the wholesale price of electricity by changing this complicated system wouldn't reduce retail bills and might even make them go up.
Energy analyst John Sullivan has also addressed the issue, not hiding his anger at the intelligence-insulting dissembling of the climate propagandists, for example here (the source of my first two links above): https://johnsullivan.substack.com/p/the-costs-rise-and-the-blackouts.
Thank you for this analysis, Douglas. It's somewhere between disingenuous and an outright lie to claim that the price of electricity is set by the price of gas. The truth is that the price of electricity is set by the cost of keeping gas plants on standby for 365 days of the year while only allowing them to charge for generating electricity for around 15 days per year.
I have been looking at 2024 by half hour, teasing out influences on prices. A significant proportion of the time they are too low to support gas generation without side payments, whilst at other times prices exceed gas costs significantly: gas is not setting the price, but rather it is set by demand destruction - at what price does industry switch off. It is clear that when wind and solar exceed about 60% of demand (before curtailment) they have a downward influence on prices. We also see some periods when very low import prices mainly from Continental solar surpluses.
Gas may often be used in the Balancing Mechanism to increase or turn down generation simply because it is flexible. We are seeing some of that role being replaced by batteries.
In any event the market doesn't really operate on a marginal cost basis. All the costliest renewables are guaranteed a sale or extensive compensation in a complete reversal of merit order. We get to pay for their subsidies regardless.
https://wastedwind.energy/ had this info well before Octopus but at least in that article they admit its the energy system thats driving that problem not gas prices. Zonal pricing isn't going to solve this and if you were serious about decarbonising the supply of energy you wouldn't go about it in the way we are its just building more balancing costs. Milibrain should have suspended any further new build until they have a grid expansion plan coordinated with generation aka CEGB MkII if he really wanted to achieve his goal. Reality is he wants to showcase himself so he gets some plumb global job at the UN. Thus he's not bothered about the cost its the headlines that matter and he will just socialise the extra costs onto the majority of us.
The other side of the coin here is the ROC generators do very nicely out of the high price of gas as well and again if they are really that confident in renewables they should let them compete separately in their own auction mkt separate from gas but that wouldn't work out well as that would likely kill off anymore CfD windmill parks.
The absurdity of ESG and the UN’s Agenda 2030 sustainable development goals has always been that by any rational assessment wind and solar are unsustainable, not “sustainable” and definitely not “clean” or “green” taking into account their short lifespans and resource depletion: minerals, metals such as copper and steel, concrete, fibreglass and large areas of land and coastal sea.
Shockingly, by their intermittency and lack of inertia they are fundamentally incompatible with how the electricity grid was designed to operate, as demonstrated by the nationwide Spain blackout of April 2025 caused by running the grid with an excessive supply from wind and solar.
The under-supply converse is equally shocking as the only plan from our Net Zero zealots to cope with prolonged periods of no wind and no sun is rationing, e.g. rolling blackouts.
Why is everyone just “following orders”? It’s like the medical profession during the Covid plandemic and not a valid defence under Nuremburg. Here’s a neat exposure of medical feasance “following orders” from above in Ireland during Covid: https://www.1215tribes.com/p/exclusive-irish-whistleblower-exposes.
Some other points of interest. Though gas prices rose post Feb 22, the rise was minimal compared to the 2021 prices heading skywards starting Jul 2021 and peaking about Jan 2022. UK energy retailers started going bust in Q4 2021 due to the UK price cap being comfortably exceeded.
Also, the Ukraine war was already in motion (2014) but the Feb 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine was probably given impetus by the Gas price spike in 2021/2022 rather than the other way around. The price spikes occurred when wind and Hydro droughts forced many countries, including Brazil and Germany to 'dash for gas'. Though there was an alleged main reason for invasion of forestalling a Ukrainian Army campaign in 2022 against the secessionists in Donbas etc
Germany in particular started bidding up the price of LNG prior to winter 2021 so much that many Asia bound LNG tankers turned around and went to Europe. The cost of paying for contract failure to deliver penalties was MORE than made up by the prices Germany was offering.
I suspect Putin thought Germany and the EU were ruled buy 'Realpolitik' leaders who wouldn't commit economic suicide by sanctioning their main gas supplier. Russia still supplies a large quantity of Gas to EU, though no longer over the Ukrainian pipelines which Ukraine closed December 31 2024.
NB in below link Gas prices had risen sharply in 2021 to peak about Jan 2022, so the subsequent Feb 22 invasion spike from the Jan 2022 prices, was relatively small rise cf Jan 2022
In the intervening years, Russia's war may have kept prices in Europe high, and prompted Asia to try and avoid bidding against Germany & Europe by looking to Coal.
It is a depressing read for windmills/solar for most of the year.
As I post this, it shows UK Demand is 29.7 Gw
UK's ~ 16Gw of Solar Panels are producing 7 Gw
UK's ~ 30Gw of Windmills are producing 5.3 Gw
So Wind/Solar's 46Gw of expensive kit is producing 12.3 Gw. Some 17Gw short of demand, AND in 6 hours time, Solar will be producing ZERO as it will be dark.
Imports total is 5.9Gw A little worrying for an Island of Coal in a sea of gas and oil?
Reply to Jo: I didn’t try to analyse the details of the gas spike prior to the war in Ukraine so I bow to your superior knowledge of the geopolitics going on then. My main point was to show that the price of gas has hovered around where it was in 2019 since early 2023.
I’ve always felt that the West deliberately provoked the war in Ukraine as a massive distraction from the Covid malfeasances and that the sanctions against Russia were actually aimed at harming our own people, just as Net Zero is doing now on energy prices and deindustrialisation on another a false pretext and just as Covid iatrogenic harms were inflicted on yet another false pretext.
As for me, I was aiming to expose the Green's and the lies they tell that Russia NOT renewables was the problem. That the 'real' increase in gas prices occurred due to the failings of the Green agenda BEFORE Russia decided to invade.
There was an increase in gas prices when Russia invaded but it was a relatively tiny increase BUT it was an increase on already very high gas prices all caused by the Golden child of renewables, Hydro power, failing drastically due to drought AND on top of that a Wind drought that also had massive detrimental effects on wind power output
I regularly see the claim Russia caused it BUT that to me is a deliberate policy of the Greens because how do you as a Green explain that your renewables FAILED spectacularly?
Not only that, but they ain't fixable! Gas plants Men can fix, gas supply could increase because we can frack, there is no shortage of reserves, BIT how do you make the wind blow enough to make electricity OR produce spare water with potential energy to drive Hydro plants? You need energy but from where? Energy to extract gas is less than the chemical energy content of the gas you extract, and by a large amount.
Not just the blob, though they are the drivers now, but the Green Cult.
Possibly the worst hypothesis for the humans on the planet was the Gaia Hypothesis, because the Greens were already so much into the pagan Mother Earth mindset (ever see Glastonbury the Town and the surrounding area in about the late 1980's, maybe even today?) that to have a renown scientist link science and their religion for them was great ( They kept hating him mind you when his science didn't back their religion, his support of Nuclear Power then his recanting his Climate Alarmism to name two issues)
So the Green Cult now had a 'real' Gaia goddess to worship supported by a scientific hypothesis. That then meant they had the moral power to indulge in the 'Noble Lie' Boy have they indulged in noble lies! If they are saving the planet then they'll lie about anything that doesn't drive their agenda. I have met and argued with so many.
They do struggle when I provide links the BBC has to evidence of life flourishing in the past at MUCH higher temperatures than the 1.5c they claim will kill us all! They are also very keen to avoid the reality that Chernobyl is not a vast swathe of deadly radioactive lands. Again the BBC has an excellent program on Chernobyl 30 years on.
Try getting them to admit polar bears are NOT facing extinction, or that temperature in the past have been much higher AND life flourished. Note how they don't push polar bear extinction so much anymore.
You can be sure a green cultist will never admit to the reality that anthropological CO2 driven apocalyptic climate change does NOT exist. You can show them as much evidence as you want that computer models are way out of line with reality, or that the UK Met Office 'record' temperatures are often from the junk status urban heat island sites or RAF Coningsbury, usually after a Jet has landed or taken off.
So the massive gas price rise of 2021 was heading to be a real problem for Greens until Putin invaded Ukraine, then ALL those rises were Putin.
I suspect History will attribute the invasion to the Green renewable droughts raising gas prices and persuading Putin he COULD invade and the EU would no nowt!
So I'm aiming at ALL Greens. blob or otherwise, who lie and obfuscate for their noble cause! A Noble Lie is still a lie.
Net Zero is truly a terrifying existential threat to the UK, and the evidence is all around us. I often say there is a very simple experiment anyone who thinks a failed grid/blackout (like Spain/Portugal experienced) is nothing to worry about. Switch off your electricity at the mains and see how long you last. Remembering that outside of your house, the supermarket, or hospital or water companies still have power. In a grid failure they will not, it lasts for more than a day then things start to get VERY interesting, in the Chinese sense of the word.
I think the timing of the Ukraine war was set by the energy crisis that was already in full swing. The causes were: the lack of development and maintenance of projects because of low prices and low demand as a result of covid (including in Russia); Mark Rutte's seismic decision to close the Groningen gas field that had been an important supply to the Netherlands, Belgium and parts of Germany; Germany's self-immolating decisions to close nuclear and coal/lignite generation: the extensive nuclear shutdowns for the Grand Carénage in France; all leading to a lack of capacity to sell forward hedges, amplified as prices exploded and willingness to offer hedges evaporated.
The Nordstream sabotage didn't take place until some weeks after exports were halted, and almost 8 months after the start of the war. The Russian gamble was that Germany would be so desperate for supply that it would either support Russia to get it, or at least not actively oppose it. They were to a significant extent correct, with Germany refusing overflight to supply Ukraine for example. The war was enabled by the crisis. It did not cause it, and had remarkably little impact on supply patterns with pipeline delivery across Ukraine being maintained until the contract ran out late last year.
Thanks for this incredible breakdown, David, once again. We can actually see the taxpayer-funded trough at which Dale and his myriad of holdings are feeding and the reason way he looks like a fish flapping at the end of a line at the moment. We really need to make sure that this is addressed. However, with Liebour's wheels being greased by Dale and his more-than-cosy links to DESNZ, any hopes that this will end soon looks a little bleak. His constant rhetoric and blatant whining on X now all makes sense.
Great work David, extracting this sort of data and performing this analysis is no easy task. Where do you get the load factor data from? I would like to look at our local wind farm Scout Moor in a similar way.
Cubico are about to apply for Scout Moor 2 - 18x180m turbines alongside our historic Cotton Famine Road. We have quizzed them on their projected earnings but they would only say that they aren't anywhere near as high as we are speculating using the financial results from Scout Moor 1 which we have explored here:
For ROC-funded wind farms you can download either the REGO or the ROC data from the Ofgem RER site. If you download the ROCs for that windfarm, you can work out MWh generated from the certificates issues and MWH/cert. The station TIC field gives the capacity. SO with a bit of Excel dexterity you can work it out.
You may find that the do updates etc at weekends. Having a 56 hour window provides considerable operational flexibility for maintenance with minimal downside to professional analysts
Great work, David, but given that Dale is notoriously tetchy and litigious, expect to be threatened with legal action to try to silence your fair and justified observations of the businesses he operates.
It could also be characterised that Dale is operating a boondoggle that suits mad Ed Milliband and the rest of the NetZero zealots.
If Milibrain was a true socialist who would see how much Vince has ripped off people and used vehicles created by the conservatives to enrich themselves.
But just like his father and Tony Benn, while they spouted socialist dogma about property, they were motivated not to allow others to own property but as soon as the possibility arose that they might themsewlves have to pay some tax on their property, they quickly made sure their own property was outside the prevailing tax liability. They are all hypocrites in my experience. Just like the Glastonbury owners.
The relevance of that to Dale Vince's misdeeds escapes me. You also misunderstand the tax system. Anyway Benn never said a thing about others not owing property.
I briefly bought electricity from Ecotricity, having changed from the standard 'supplier' at a time that electricity retailing was being de-regulated. I asked questions about its sources at different times of the day or week and why it did not have more 'renewables'. Given how much higher its prices were than others, this implied very substantial extra revenue/profits. Ecotricity refused to answer.
I changed to the Co-op in 2013. It had difficulties a few years later and the electricity supply business was taken over by Octopus. They may be on a par with Ecotricity in their behaviour although any malpractice is probably more cleverly hidden.
At the time I used Ecotricity, Good Energy got even worse publicity for its antics. In Private Eye, as it happens.
The relevance of that to Dale Vince's misdeeds escapes me. " Perhaps this is because your thinking is lacking in width and depth.
"You also misunderstand the tax system." That's a bold claim for you to make! Care to enlighten me with specifics, or is sweeping statements the order of the day? Your arrogance in this regard is telling.
"Anyway, Benn never said a thing about others not owing property." Another sweeping statement. Do you always just shoot your mouth off without checking first? Benn was a public figure for a lot of years and said a lot of things!
Benn said this about 'The Establishment', which I would contest is a suitable proxy for the property-owning class.
"I don’t think people realise how the establishment became established. It simply stole the land and property off the poor, surrounded themselves with weak minded sycophants for protection, gave themselves titles and have been wielding power ever since."
And you need to check the Deed of Variation (2000-2001) on his Holland Park home.
This was the result
"By transferring part of the Holland Park home’s ownership, Benn’s estate was smaller when he died, lowering the IHT liability. The property was sold in 2011 for £4.1 million, and the earlier transfer meant a portion of its value was already outside his taxable estate. Additionally, his Stansgate Abbey Farm estate was placed in a trust, another common IHT mitigation strategy, though this is less directly tied to the will change."
So while TB ensured he avoided inheritance tax, he also said, "We will also take action to make the tax system fairer, including action to reduce the tax advantages enjoyed from inherited wealth.”
The quote appears in the Labour Party Manifesto 1983, titled The New Hope for Britain. Specifically, it is referenced in the section on economic policy and taxation, where Labour outlined plans to reform the tax system to address wealth inequality. The manifesto promised measures to reduce tax advantages tied to inherited wealth, aligning with Benn’s socialist advocacy for wealth redistribution.
So, while you might struggle to think this through, I would suggest this is evidence of his hypocrisy! The Millibands did something similar, had Milliband senior was even more vocal about property ownership.
Oh, and thank you for the riveting anecdote of where you purchased your electrical power supply from. Can't wait for the sequel, The Gas Supply Files: a personal journey on YouSwitch!
Great analysis David. I do wish the liars in government would learn. We need the cheapest and most efficient energy to run an industrial nation, intermittent is neither cheap or efficient. FF and nuclear should be used until there is a viable alternative and that will not be wind or solar.
Thing is we are no longer an industrial nation and they will never admit it but its making the job of their haloed net zero easier to achieve. Of course add back imported carbon emissions and we don't look anywhere near as good.
Thank you for this brilliant detective work David. Remembering John Harvey Jones' observation that profit (and loss) is generally the small difference between two much larger numbers, your article inspired me to take a look at the Ecotricity Group Ltd account to end April 2024, found here: https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/03521776/filing-history
From this (page 30), the revenue was £459.2m, of which energy sales were £447.1m. Taxpayer grants and energy credits come to £11.3m, so 2.5% of revenue. There is also revenue of £2.7 for FIT administration income, which I guess comes from us: if so that's a total of £14m or 3% of revenue, perhaps not huge viewed in one light. Profit and loss is the realm of accountants, but the Strategic Report (page 3) gives the pre-tax profit as £5.1m compared with £44.7m the previous year.
For 2024 I simple-mindedly conclude that the taxpayer kept the company afloat. The statement that profits fell in part due to the fall in Ofgem price cap "returning to a more normalised, albeit still elevated, level", would give me, were I an investor, cause for concern. In summary, this "cheapest form of electricity production" is, no surprise, reliant on high electricity prices.
Vince is working exactly as designed. HMG offer incentives to make things happen. Just like tweaking car taxes to get us plebs buying different cars. The dodgy part is hiding the figures and telling lies about why electricity is so expensive.
Nicki, if we are to be leaders in AI, build an army, navy, air force to fight Starmers wars.the U.K. is going to need a lot of cheap energy. Our Elites must start realising this soon, we can’t do these things and get growth with intermittent expensive wasteful energy.
The energy that "cyber" consumes is at astronomical levels. Those who advocated green policies also think that AI and Crypto is the answer to everything.
Thanks for the excellent report. He blames high electricity prices on gas but if by some means we could have electricity without any gas at all would it make any difference to the price of electricity?
I'm sure you are right but why would they soar? I think when someone comes out with that thing about gas causing high electricity prices they should be asked what they think would happen if we didn't use gas at all.
I had an idea like this. Suppose half of our electricity came from gas and half from renewables the whole sale market price would be set by the marginal price of gas. Then suppose we only needed 10% gas, the whole sale price would remain the same. Then suppose we only needed 1% of gas. The wholesale price would be the same and yet only 1% of our electricity came from gas. One step further and we need no gas and suddenly the wholesale market price would plummet. But with the CFD scheme the subsidy for renewable companies would jump up to make up the difference and we would be no better off.
They would soar because you have to cover the total costs of a renewables based system. It's not just the excess generation you must pay for to try to cover periods when winds are slight and solar is low or zero, with a lot of output when it's windy/sunny being curtailed for zero value because it's too costly to store. There's all the extra grid you need to transport and stabilise remote renewables output, a huge and heavily underutilised investment.
The viability of storage depends on how fast it can be turned over, earning a margin on each turn. Being able to charge and discharge for morning and evening peaks gives a twice a day turnover for the currently optimal 2 hour batteries, at least provided intra day prices are volatile enough to give a margin over round trip losses. Once you start trying to cover for extended periods of Dunkelflaute or seasonal variations the turnover rate drops dramatically, killing storage economics. So you have to have a parallel system of dispatchable capacity which you must pay to keep idle when the wind is blowing.
As you can see, it doesn't add up to a cheap system.
I thought it would be more expensive. The reason I mentioned it was because of a post on another substack by Irina Slav. She quotes the Financial Times which said that since gas sets the price of electricity most of the time that would be good reason to stop using it altogether. This is the Financial Times so you would think they might know better. The argumenat against that is obviously that if we were able source all our electricity from renewables without gas, electricity prices would rise even higher than they are already. I think this should be repeated and repeated.
See update above. Post removed because of derogatory language used in the comment.
Did I type something out of order? If so I apologise, my intention was not to offend.
Don't worry. All will be explained in Sunday's article.
Interesting strategic analysis, SPV's have their uses to see what's going on. Most surprised at the price cap, another blatant example of one law for them another for us
“Subsidy harvesting”; just another form of grifting !!
Following the successful Al Gore "business" model
That's Octopus. More on that in a couple of weeks or so.
In keeping with the “Dummies Guide” theme, here is a comment I prepared earlier on the simplistic claims by the likes of Dale Vince and his stablemate Greg Jackson at Octopus Energy that the price of gas sets the price of electricity. Octopus Energy has just launched a live ticker tool that shows how much wind power the “broken” UK electricity grid is wasting due to curtailment. Their blurb implies that the energy price crisis is due to the price of gas: https://www.rechargenews.com/markets-and-finance/uk-s-wasted-wind-power-laid-bare-by-new-octopus-tracking-tool/2-1-1842501?zephr_sso_ott=sjrFTd:
Climate propagandists claim that the high cost of UK electricity is due to what they wrongly claim is the high cost of UK natural gas. The following explanation shows why their narrative is false.
A 10-year view of the price of UK natural gas can be selected here: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas.
The graph shows a level gas price from 2015 until the huge 2022-23 spike caused by the unnecessarily provoked war in Ukraine (hopefully now being spiked by President Trump), since when the price has settled back down to where it was in 2019.
The 10-year view of the UK electricity spot (wholesale) price can be selected here: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/electricity-price.
The profile of this graph almost exactly mirrors that of the graph of natural gas. So yes, the wholesale price of UK electricity closely tracks the price of UK natural gas. Inconveniently for climate alarmists, the gas price is now back to where it was in 2019 whereas the domestic retail price of UK electricity has doubled since 2019 (and almost tripled since 2008, the year the Climate Change Act was enacted), as shown on this ONS Producer Price Index (PPI) interactive graph for domestic electricity: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/ghbl/ppi.
Climate propagandists like Ed Miliband are almost certainly aware that blaming high electricity prices on the market price of gas is a bogus argument and are only using it to push the road-to-disaster agenda of moving away from gas to fully embrace weather-dependent so-called renewables. They dissemble that if only we could rid the grid of gas ”supplied by dictators like Putin”, everything would be hunky dory. The reality is that the 2022-23 gas price spike was due to self-harming European sanctions against Russia and Biden blowing up the Nord Stream gas pipeline for good measure.
But is there any merit in their claim that it is irrational to set the wholesale price of electricity before it is even delivered based on the price of gas? Independent energy consultant Kathryn Porter says no in this 12-minute layman-pitched video presentation (Warning: despite her best endeavours to give a simple explanation, this topic is inherently very complicated): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNVvgD75uz8.
Basically, UK retail electricity prices are high because so many Net Zero levies and subsidies are related to and added on top of the wholesale price. Kathryn starts by explaining so-called merit order and marginal pricing which is based on the marginal cost of running of the different electricity generation types which can be called upon the national system operator. The seeming paradox is that this marginal price is close to zero for wind and solar whereas for gas it is usually the most expensive. She explains that using the advance highest price option which subsequently may not even be run is not a UK aberration but is the system used by every deregulated energy market in the world. Note also that wind and solar electricity is well remunerated through subsidy contracts unrelated to their almost zero marginal price, often above what a gas power station typically gets. She goes on to explain why any attempt to reduce the wholesale price of electricity by changing this complicated system wouldn't reduce retail bills and might even make them go up.
This issue has also been addressed many times by energy analyst David Turver, for example here: https://davidturver.substack.com/p/why-energy-prices-high-how-reduce-them-esnz-cost-of-energy
Energy analyst John Sullivan has also addressed the issue, not hiding his anger at the intelligence-insulting dissembling of the climate propagandists, for example here (the source of my first two links above): https://johnsullivan.substack.com/p/the-costs-rise-and-the-blackouts.
Thank you for this analysis, Douglas. It's somewhere between disingenuous and an outright lie to claim that the price of electricity is set by the price of gas. The truth is that the price of electricity is set by the cost of keeping gas plants on standby for 365 days of the year while only allowing them to charge for generating electricity for around 15 days per year.
Got a piece on balancing and backup costs coming soon.
I have been looking at 2024 by half hour, teasing out influences on prices. A significant proportion of the time they are too low to support gas generation without side payments, whilst at other times prices exceed gas costs significantly: gas is not setting the price, but rather it is set by demand destruction - at what price does industry switch off. It is clear that when wind and solar exceed about 60% of demand (before curtailment) they have a downward influence on prices. We also see some periods when very low import prices mainly from Continental solar surpluses.
Gas may often be used in the Balancing Mechanism to increase or turn down generation simply because it is flexible. We are seeing some of that role being replaced by batteries.
In any event the market doesn't really operate on a marginal cost basis. All the costliest renewables are guaranteed a sale or extensive compensation in a complete reversal of merit order. We get to pay for their subsidies regardless.
https://wastedwind.energy/ had this info well before Octopus but at least in that article they admit its the energy system thats driving that problem not gas prices. Zonal pricing isn't going to solve this and if you were serious about decarbonising the supply of energy you wouldn't go about it in the way we are its just building more balancing costs. Milibrain should have suspended any further new build until they have a grid expansion plan coordinated with generation aka CEGB MkII if he really wanted to achieve his goal. Reality is he wants to showcase himself so he gets some plumb global job at the UN. Thus he's not bothered about the cost its the headlines that matter and he will just socialise the extra costs onto the majority of us.
The other side of the coin here is the ROC generators do very nicely out of the high price of gas as well and again if they are really that confident in renewables they should let them compete separately in their own auction mkt separate from gas but that wouldn't work out well as that would likely kill off anymore CfD windmill parks.
You have to wonder if Miliband’s plan is to deliberately wreck our energy infrastructure. After all, he is only “obeying the orders” of the UN: (MSM link rather than paywalled Guardian) https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/national/criminalise-fossil-fuel-disinformation-and-ban-its-lobbying-says-un-expert/ar-AA1HGQ5d.
Starmer has just committed the UK to a new UN “sustainable development” boondoggle, the Sevilla Platform for Action: https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/06/1165096.
The absurdity of ESG and the UN’s Agenda 2030 sustainable development goals has always been that by any rational assessment wind and solar are unsustainable, not “sustainable” and definitely not “clean” or “green” taking into account their short lifespans and resource depletion: minerals, metals such as copper and steel, concrete, fibreglass and large areas of land and coastal sea.
Shockingly, by their intermittency and lack of inertia they are fundamentally incompatible with how the electricity grid was designed to operate, as demonstrated by the nationwide Spain blackout of April 2025 caused by running the grid with an excessive supply from wind and solar.
The under-supply converse is equally shocking as the only plan from our Net Zero zealots to cope with prolonged periods of no wind and no sun is rationing, e.g. rolling blackouts.
Why is everyone just “following orders”? It’s like the medical profession during the Covid plandemic and not a valid defence under Nuremburg. Here’s a neat exposure of medical feasance “following orders” from above in Ireland during Covid: https://www.1215tribes.com/p/exclusive-irish-whistleblower-exposes.
Some other points of interest. Though gas prices rose post Feb 22, the rise was minimal compared to the 2021 prices heading skywards starting Jul 2021 and peaking about Jan 2022. UK energy retailers started going bust in Q4 2021 due to the UK price cap being comfortably exceeded.
Also, the Ukraine war was already in motion (2014) but the Feb 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine was probably given impetus by the Gas price spike in 2021/2022 rather than the other way around. The price spikes occurred when wind and Hydro droughts forced many countries, including Brazil and Germany to 'dash for gas'. Though there was an alleged main reason for invasion of forestalling a Ukrainian Army campaign in 2022 against the secessionists in Donbas etc
Germany in particular started bidding up the price of LNG prior to winter 2021 so much that many Asia bound LNG tankers turned around and went to Europe. The cost of paying for contract failure to deliver penalties was MORE than made up by the prices Germany was offering.
I suspect Putin thought Germany and the EU were ruled buy 'Realpolitik' leaders who wouldn't commit economic suicide by sanctioning their main gas supplier. Russia still supplies a large quantity of Gas to EU, though no longer over the Ukrainian pipelines which Ukraine closed December 31 2024.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4glyjx9m71o
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/lng/020124-increase-in-lng-imports-highlights-brazils-impact-on-prices
NB in below link Gas prices had risen sharply in 2021 to peak about Jan 2022, so the subsequent Feb 22 invasion spike from the Jan 2022 prices, was relatively small rise cf Jan 2022
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/07/PE22_N044_43.html
and here we see 73% fall in hydroelectrcity in Jan and Feb 2022 (reported 6 days AFTER Russia invade Ukraine)
https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2022-02-28/dam-electricity-down-73-this-year/65524
It wasn't only Hydro drought, though, there was a WInd Drought in 2021, that also affected Portugal as well as the rest of Europe,
"UK reported a 32% drop in power output from its renewable assets during this period."
https://tristateinfrastructurenews.com/the-2021-wind-drought-impact-on-power-output-energy-sources-and-consumer-prices/
https://www.greenmatters.com/news/wind-drought
So the dash for Gas (LNG) was on.
In the intervening years, Russia's war may have kept prices in Europe high, and prompted Asia to try and avoid bidding against Germany & Europe by looking to Coal.
https://www.nuclearasia.com/feature/the-rise-of-king-coal-as-energy-crisis-hits-europe/4686/
As an aside, this site provides live UK demand and generator data.
https://www.energydashboard.co.uk/live
It is a depressing read for windmills/solar for most of the year.
As I post this, it shows UK Demand is 29.7 Gw
UK's ~ 16Gw of Solar Panels are producing 7 Gw
UK's ~ 30Gw of Windmills are producing 5.3 Gw
So Wind/Solar's 46Gw of expensive kit is producing 12.3 Gw. Some 17Gw short of demand, AND in 6 hours time, Solar will be producing ZERO as it will be dark.
Imports total is 5.9Gw A little worrying for an Island of Coal in a sea of gas and oil?
You are right to draw attention to the renewables failures of 2021. They certainly contributed to tight supply.
Reply to Jo: I didn’t try to analyse the details of the gas spike prior to the war in Ukraine so I bow to your superior knowledge of the geopolitics going on then. My main point was to show that the price of gas has hovered around where it was in 2019 since early 2023.
I’ve always felt that the West deliberately provoked the war in Ukraine as a massive distraction from the Covid malfeasances and that the sanctions against Russia were actually aimed at harming our own people, just as Net Zero is doing now on energy prices and deindustrialisation on another a false pretext and just as Covid iatrogenic harms were inflicted on yet another false pretext.
As for me, I was aiming to expose the Green's and the lies they tell that Russia NOT renewables was the problem. That the 'real' increase in gas prices occurred due to the failings of the Green agenda BEFORE Russia decided to invade.
There was an increase in gas prices when Russia invaded but it was a relatively tiny increase BUT it was an increase on already very high gas prices all caused by the Golden child of renewables, Hydro power, failing drastically due to drought AND on top of that a Wind drought that also had massive detrimental effects on wind power output
I regularly see the claim Russia caused it BUT that to me is a deliberate policy of the Greens because how do you as a Green explain that your renewables FAILED spectacularly?
Not only that, but they ain't fixable! Gas plants Men can fix, gas supply could increase because we can frack, there is no shortage of reserves, BIT how do you make the wind blow enough to make electricity OR produce spare water with potential energy to drive Hydro plants? You need energy but from where? Energy to extract gas is less than the chemical energy content of the gas you extract, and by a large amount.
Reply to Jo: By “Greens” and the lies they tell I assume you mean the establishment “blob”! The hopelessly poor ERoEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) of wind and solar has been widely exposed, for example here: https://davidturver.substack.com/p/why-eroei-matters?utm_source=publication-search.
The fact that the Uniparty relentlessly pursues the deployment of such obviously duff technologies is clear proof that the climate change hoax is a scam: https://metatron.substack.com/p/debunking-the-climate-change-hoax
Not just the blob, though they are the drivers now, but the Green Cult.
Possibly the worst hypothesis for the humans on the planet was the Gaia Hypothesis, because the Greens were already so much into the pagan Mother Earth mindset (ever see Glastonbury the Town and the surrounding area in about the late 1980's, maybe even today?) that to have a renown scientist link science and their religion for them was great ( They kept hating him mind you when his science didn't back their religion, his support of Nuclear Power then his recanting his Climate Alarmism to name two issues)
So the Green Cult now had a 'real' Gaia goddess to worship supported by a scientific hypothesis. That then meant they had the moral power to indulge in the 'Noble Lie' Boy have they indulged in noble lies! If they are saving the planet then they'll lie about anything that doesn't drive their agenda. I have met and argued with so many.
They do struggle when I provide links the BBC has to evidence of life flourishing in the past at MUCH higher temperatures than the 1.5c they claim will kill us all! They are also very keen to avoid the reality that Chernobyl is not a vast swathe of deadly radioactive lands. Again the BBC has an excellent program on Chernobyl 30 years on.
Try getting them to admit polar bears are NOT facing extinction, or that temperature in the past have been much higher AND life flourished. Note how they don't push polar bear extinction so much anymore.
You can be sure a green cultist will never admit to the reality that anthropological CO2 driven apocalyptic climate change does NOT exist. You can show them as much evidence as you want that computer models are way out of line with reality, or that the UK Met Office 'record' temperatures are often from the junk status urban heat island sites or RAF Coningsbury, usually after a Jet has landed or taken off.
So the massive gas price rise of 2021 was heading to be a real problem for Greens until Putin invaded Ukraine, then ALL those rises were Putin.
I suspect History will attribute the invasion to the Green renewable droughts raising gas prices and persuading Putin he COULD invade and the EU would no nowt!
So I'm aiming at ALL Greens. blob or otherwise, who lie and obfuscate for their noble cause! A Noble Lie is still a lie.
Net Zero is truly a terrifying existential threat to the UK, and the evidence is all around us. I often say there is a very simple experiment anyone who thinks a failed grid/blackout (like Spain/Portugal experienced) is nothing to worry about. Switch off your electricity at the mains and see how long you last. Remembering that outside of your house, the supermarket, or hospital or water companies still have power. In a grid failure they will not, it lasts for more than a day then things start to get VERY interesting, in the Chinese sense of the word.
I think the timing of the Ukraine war was set by the energy crisis that was already in full swing. The causes were: the lack of development and maintenance of projects because of low prices and low demand as a result of covid (including in Russia); Mark Rutte's seismic decision to close the Groningen gas field that had been an important supply to the Netherlands, Belgium and parts of Germany; Germany's self-immolating decisions to close nuclear and coal/lignite generation: the extensive nuclear shutdowns for the Grand Carénage in France; all leading to a lack of capacity to sell forward hedges, amplified as prices exploded and willingness to offer hedges evaporated.
The Nordstream sabotage didn't take place until some weeks after exports were halted, and almost 8 months after the start of the war. The Russian gamble was that Germany would be so desperate for supply that it would either support Russia to get it, or at least not actively oppose it. They were to a significant extent correct, with Germany refusing overflight to supply Ukraine for example. The war was enabled by the crisis. It did not cause it, and had remarkably little impact on supply patterns with pipeline delivery across Ukraine being maintained until the contract ran out late last year.
Thanks for this incredible breakdown, David, once again. We can actually see the taxpayer-funded trough at which Dale and his myriad of holdings are feeding and the reason way he looks like a fish flapping at the end of a line at the moment. We really need to make sure that this is addressed. However, with Liebour's wheels being greased by Dale and his more-than-cosy links to DESNZ, any hopes that this will end soon looks a little bleak. His constant rhetoric and blatant whining on X now all makes sense.
Dale foolishly puts himself in the limelight and he's really small beer compared to the largesse being milked by the big corporate entities
Every little helps! 😁
Great work David, extracting this sort of data and performing this analysis is no easy task. Where do you get the load factor data from? I would like to look at our local wind farm Scout Moor in a similar way.
Cubico are about to apply for Scout Moor 2 - 18x180m turbines alongside our historic Cotton Famine Road. We have quizzed them on their projected earnings but they would only say that they aren't anywhere near as high as we are speculating using the financial results from Scout Moor 1 which we have explored here:
https://saynotoscoutmoor2.org.uk/obscene-profits-generated-by-scout-moor/
Any pointers would be much appreciated.
For ROC-funded wind farms you can download either the REGO or the ROC data from the Ofgem RER site. If you download the ROCs for that windfarm, you can work out MWh generated from the certificates issues and MWH/cert. The station TIC field gives the capacity. SO with a bit of Excel dexterity you can work it out.
https://rer.ofgem.gov.uk/ (doesn't work at weekends)
Umm thats a new one a govt website that only works during working hours doesn't bode well for the AI revolution they keep harping on about
Thanks both - I shall take a look
You may find that the do updates etc at weekends. Having a 56 hour window provides considerable operational flexibility for maintenance with minimal downside to professional analysts
Occasionally maybe but not every weekend and weekday nights
I wasn't sure that you were serious but turns out you are correct :-( This is ridiculous
Hi, how would I find out if they received any constraint payments (if at all)?
https://www.ref.org.uk/constraints/index.php
Thanks David
This is your goto site for load factors
https://www.ref.org.uk/generators/index.php
It has a Scout Moor Wind Farm on there load factor at c27%
Great work, David, but given that Dale is notoriously tetchy and litigious, expect to be threatened with legal action to try to silence your fair and justified observations of the businesses he operates.
It could also be characterised that Dale is operating a boondoggle that suits mad Ed Milliband and the rest of the NetZero zealots.
If Milibrain was a true socialist who would see how much Vince has ripped off people and used vehicles created by the conservatives to enrich themselves.
But just like his father and Tony Benn, while they spouted socialist dogma about property, they were motivated not to allow others to own property but as soon as the possibility arose that they might themsewlves have to pay some tax on their property, they quickly made sure their own property was outside the prevailing tax liability. They are all hypocrites in my experience. Just like the Glastonbury owners.
The relevance of that to Dale Vince's misdeeds escapes me. You also misunderstand the tax system. Anyway Benn never said a thing about others not owing property.
I briefly bought electricity from Ecotricity, having changed from the standard 'supplier' at a time that electricity retailing was being de-regulated. I asked questions about its sources at different times of the day or week and why it did not have more 'renewables'. Given how much higher its prices were than others, this implied very substantial extra revenue/profits. Ecotricity refused to answer.
I changed to the Co-op in 2013. It had difficulties a few years later and the electricity supply business was taken over by Octopus. They may be on a par with Ecotricity in their behaviour although any malpractice is probably more cleverly hidden.
At the time I used Ecotricity, Good Energy got even worse publicity for its antics. In Private Eye, as it happens.
The relevance of that to Dale Vince's misdeeds escapes me. " Perhaps this is because your thinking is lacking in width and depth.
"You also misunderstand the tax system." That's a bold claim for you to make! Care to enlighten me with specifics, or is sweeping statements the order of the day? Your arrogance in this regard is telling.
"Anyway, Benn never said a thing about others not owing property." Another sweeping statement. Do you always just shoot your mouth off without checking first? Benn was a public figure for a lot of years and said a lot of things!
Benn said this about 'The Establishment', which I would contest is a suitable proxy for the property-owning class.
"I don’t think people realise how the establishment became established. It simply stole the land and property off the poor, surrounded themselves with weak minded sycophants for protection, gave themselves titles and have been wielding power ever since."
And you need to check the Deed of Variation (2000-2001) on his Holland Park home.
This was the result
"By transferring part of the Holland Park home’s ownership, Benn’s estate was smaller when he died, lowering the IHT liability. The property was sold in 2011 for £4.1 million, and the earlier transfer meant a portion of its value was already outside his taxable estate. Additionally, his Stansgate Abbey Farm estate was placed in a trust, another common IHT mitigation strategy, though this is less directly tied to the will change."
So while TB ensured he avoided inheritance tax, he also said, "We will also take action to make the tax system fairer, including action to reduce the tax advantages enjoyed from inherited wealth.”
The quote appears in the Labour Party Manifesto 1983, titled The New Hope for Britain. Specifically, it is referenced in the section on economic policy and taxation, where Labour outlined plans to reform the tax system to address wealth inequality. The manifesto promised measures to reduce tax advantages tied to inherited wealth, aligning with Benn’s socialist advocacy for wealth redistribution.
So, while you might struggle to think this through, I would suggest this is evidence of his hypocrisy! The Millibands did something similar, had Milliband senior was even more vocal about property ownership.
Oh, and thank you for the riveting anecdote of where you purchased your electrical power supply from. Can't wait for the sequel, The Gas Supply Files: a personal journey on YouSwitch!
" "You also misunderstand the tax system." That's a bold claim for you to make! Care to enlighten me with specifics"
Read about MMT Modern Monetary Theory, taxes as a matter of accounting don't fund gov spending.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKoQAYPU_rE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ih9u2xLmZoE
https://www.globalresearch.ca/fiscal-deficit-modern-monetary-theory-progressive-economic-policy/5718509
etc...
So why do they tax us?
Oh Christ, someone else who likes to speak without thinking first. Show me where I say anything about taxes funding government spending?
Interestingly, you assumed I had not already read about MMT. Why?
MMT is something I read and discarded many years ago; it is woo woo.
And please don't tell me you have been watching that cankerous liberal progressive Richard Murphy!
Great analysis David. I do wish the liars in government would learn. We need the cheapest and most efficient energy to run an industrial nation, intermittent is neither cheap or efficient. FF and nuclear should be used until there is a viable alternative and that will not be wind or solar.
Thing is we are no longer an industrial nation and they will never admit it but its making the job of their haloed net zero easier to achieve. Of course add back imported carbon emissions and we don't look anywhere near as good.
This takes the biscuit. Edited comment in case someone decided to sue!
The Green Blob is not going to like this. Keep it up David! But expect kickback.
We've got to take them on head-on. There's been too much smoke & mirrors and BS for too long.
Thank you for this brilliant detective work David. Remembering John Harvey Jones' observation that profit (and loss) is generally the small difference between two much larger numbers, your article inspired me to take a look at the Ecotricity Group Ltd account to end April 2024, found here: https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/03521776/filing-history
From this (page 30), the revenue was £459.2m, of which energy sales were £447.1m. Taxpayer grants and energy credits come to £11.3m, so 2.5% of revenue. There is also revenue of £2.7 for FIT administration income, which I guess comes from us: if so that's a total of £14m or 3% of revenue, perhaps not huge viewed in one light. Profit and loss is the realm of accountants, but the Strategic Report (page 3) gives the pre-tax profit as £5.1m compared with £44.7m the previous year.
For 2024 I simple-mindedly conclude that the taxpayer kept the company afloat. The statement that profits fell in part due to the fall in Ofgem price cap "returning to a more normalised, albeit still elevated, level", would give me, were I an investor, cause for concern. In summary, this "cheapest form of electricity production" is, no surprise, reliant on high electricity prices.
The price cap should have no bearing as the wholesale price has fallen so margins should be the same.
Vince is working exactly as designed. HMG offer incentives to make things happen. Just like tweaking car taxes to get us plebs buying different cars. The dodgy part is hiding the figures and telling lies about why electricity is so expensive.
Nicki, if we are to be leaders in AI, build an army, navy, air force to fight Starmers wars.the U.K. is going to need a lot of cheap energy. Our Elites must start realising this soon, we can’t do these things and get growth with intermittent expensive wasteful energy.
The energy that "cyber" consumes is at astronomical levels. Those who advocated green policies also think that AI and Crypto is the answer to everything.
Thanks for the excellent report. He blames high electricity prices on gas but if by some means we could have electricity without any gas at all would it make any difference to the price of electricity?
Retail prices would soar
I'm sure you are right but why would they soar? I think when someone comes out with that thing about gas causing high electricity prices they should be asked what they think would happen if we didn't use gas at all.
I had an idea like this. Suppose half of our electricity came from gas and half from renewables the whole sale market price would be set by the marginal price of gas. Then suppose we only needed 10% gas, the whole sale price would remain the same. Then suppose we only needed 1% of gas. The wholesale price would be the same and yet only 1% of our electricity came from gas. One step further and we need no gas and suddenly the wholesale market price would plummet. But with the CFD scheme the subsidy for renewable companies would jump up to make up the difference and we would be no better off.
Plus we would spend a lot more on grid balancing, backup and grid extensions
They would soar because you have to cover the total costs of a renewables based system. It's not just the excess generation you must pay for to try to cover periods when winds are slight and solar is low or zero, with a lot of output when it's windy/sunny being curtailed for zero value because it's too costly to store. There's all the extra grid you need to transport and stabilise remote renewables output, a huge and heavily underutilised investment.
The viability of storage depends on how fast it can be turned over, earning a margin on each turn. Being able to charge and discharge for morning and evening peaks gives a twice a day turnover for the currently optimal 2 hour batteries, at least provided intra day prices are volatile enough to give a margin over round trip losses. Once you start trying to cover for extended periods of Dunkelflaute or seasonal variations the turnover rate drops dramatically, killing storage economics. So you have to have a parallel system of dispatchable capacity which you must pay to keep idle when the wind is blowing.
As you can see, it doesn't add up to a cheap system.
I thought it would be more expensive. The reason I mentioned it was because of a post on another substack by Irina Slav. She quotes the Financial Times which said that since gas sets the price of electricity most of the time that would be good reason to stop using it altogether. This is the Financial Times so you would think they might know better. The argumenat against that is obviously that if we were able source all our electricity from renewables without gas, electricity prices would rise even higher than they are already. I think this should be repeated and repeated.
Watch this.
https://open.substack.com/pub/davidturver/p/renewables-are-much-more-expensive?r=nhgn1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
Why are we not using our own secure fracked gas or the several hundred years worth of coal under our feet?