As an American who worked for years for BP and spent a lot of time in the UK (we even lived in Kew for a while) I care about the UK and wish there was cause for optimism. The UK is getting what it deserves, because you guys voted for these clowns. The USA got what it deserved the last 4 years because we voted for our own set of clowns. The profound foolishness of offshore wind is almost unbelievable. You don't need advanced mathematics to prove it: offshore wind in the Atlantic and the North Sea is stupid by inspection. About the only thing we can do is to continue to educate those people who will listen and hold our collective clowns accountable for the energy misery they are causing. This will unfortunately take years and a lot of human suffering, but there will eventually be a day of reckoning. Keep up the good fight. To quote one of my all time favorite people, "Never give up!"
It seems the complaints to OFCOM about Justin Rowlatt's inaccurate costings of renewables didn't make the report bulletin this time which appears to have a cut off date of 19 July.
We'll need to check again in a couple of months when the next report is due. Perhaps a good way to force OFCOM's hand is to complain about similar material published by others.
I got an email from EMR Delivery Body timed 10:57 asking if I was a Qualified Applicant...
I replied pointing out that the public has a right to be kept properly informed, especially given the circumstances where there is doubt as to whether the permitted strike prices are high enough to spark the required interest.
Interesting comment re be ing able to recycle previous rounds into AR6. Im surmising this will largely be AR3 sites as they were c£40/MWh [2012 prices] and there was c5.5GW of offshore with a CfD. That means 1.4GW could be reallocated to AR6 [only 25% is allowed]. Assuming all this pursued this avenue that would take c400m of the pot away straight away. My inclination is they know all previous CfD owners have put their units into play which is why they've jacked up AR6 otherwise they could look extremely foolish. Even doing that will leave them (AR3 CfD's) well down on what the average wholesale price is anyhow so even then there is no guarantee they will take up their CfD from AR3 but im presuming would be obliged to honour the AR6 element if awarded.
Lets hope some decent journalists out there then challenge the govt over why we are now paying even more subsidy for that cheap wind they told they had procured!!
Taking up a CFD is driven by the after tax position including the generator levy, which kicks in at £75/MWh. Current strike prices below that have the incentive to delay their CFD, even though they may find themselves in line for curtailment like Seagreen. The AR6 CFDs will not have a takeup delay option, which of course makes them less financially interesting. Triton Knoll finally commenced the remaining portion of their CFD after market prices fell back well below their strike price.
Inflation gradually boosts the strike price. Rising capacity means more time being curtailed and lower returns to curtailment. The combination can leave the CFD the better option.
REMA beckons in the not too distant future which is an opportunity for a complete reset on pricing.
Arghh there is the AR4 sites as well another 6.9GW so 1.7GW eligible so thats another 500m and the pot would have been exhausted. Its pretty certain that existing bidders are going to be keaner on pricing so new build could be far less than Millibrain wants. Oh dear Houston we have a problem - lets see how Starkie is going to crack that one.
When do you think the Grid will start to fail regularly? Do you think this Government will actually last 5 years? Could a new conspiracy theory be that the current 'riots' are incited so that by the food riots in a few years time ,the mechanism for halting them is up and running?
They also good at telling porkies - what they say in private is NOT what they say in public. - and now the Spectator AND Telegraph are reporting on it.
Euronews thinks the grid may start failing in 2028. Next year, according to previous Eigen Values articles 'reliable generation' will start to fall below the peak demand values. I'm curious how given that for the 33rd consecutive day windmills/solar are still nowhere near meeting demand, are we going to avoid increasing reliance on Europe for imported energy to stop the Grid failing. As I post almost 15% of our demand is from Norway, Ireland and France. This is basically midsummer/Sunday - IF we need that much now, what happens mid-week mid-winter?
Agreed on the main point, but in fact they are very very bad at system management. What they are tolerably good at (because of a pliant media full to brimming with toadies instead of actual journalists) is hiding things from the public. The statements coming out of government and agencies charged with overseeing energy and auctions are quite awful in that if one had the desire and understanding of the recent past mandates and auction and pricing models, it would be obvious that they are lying.
Thank you David for another gripping Sunday morning read. You have created your own genre of horror.
A clue may lie in the name of the influential CCC - an engineering-led Energy Systems Committee might have been better - it appears an at-all-costs mindset prevails, and the Committee is really a group of critics rather than prime-movers. ("Show me a monument to a critic.")
There is now a body of evidence from some US states and Germany, for example, that wind and solar do not provide low-cost, reliable power, because of all the associated costs well-known to your readers, even if turbines and photovoltaic panel were free with crisp packets. Sadly, evidence seems to consist of mass-less particles.
The only positive actions I can think of are spreading the word (thank you again) and lobbying elected representatives. Further down the track, and I expect it would go viral, I propose naming power blackouts "Milibands". Some politicians can be quite thin-skinned over their legacy.
My prophecy of the week is that in the future, maybe not that far ahead, we will wake up to find that India and China, currently notorious for burning coal like there's no tomorrow, have become world leaders in nuclear power and have cracked the cost issues. (And we in the West, could have done it but didn't.)
Oh they've doubled down on the CCC with Starkies Mission Control which strikes will have a philosophy akin to the NSDAP and just bully through whatever they want whenever any of the half rational organisations like the NESO or OFGEM challenge whats being proposed. ie OFGEM will run a consultation on the need for more grid investment (Beyond 2030) and attempt to question the necessity and timing of it and Starkie will just overrule them. Mind you expect the biggest abuse of power will be to now overrule any local planner that tries to stand in their way.
To be fair, it is a technology that needs clear operational regulation - some of our over-regulation I suspect is tied up with land availability/energy infrastructure planning, land use & planning opposition.
The inability of a politician to make a good reasoned intelligent decision that might look to the future of the UK needs rather that one that will be played on the current 24/7 hour news loop is an issue.
No. Most of it is triplicate systems that then interact in unexpected ways, requiring a further triplification to control them, coupled with insane standards like proofing against a ML9 earthquake that won't even be a remote chance in the UK for 200 million years if plate tectonics go badly. EdF have complained of 7,500 design modifications demanded by the ONR at Hinkley Point. Meanwhile KEPCO built 4 reactors of proven design ( and thus no need for mods) in UAE - 5.6GW for $25bn, well under the £33bn so far for 3.2GW at Hinkley Point.
As to ‘why’ Accipiter, IMHO apathy, ‘celebrity’ obsession with what’s happening on Love Island…. Heads in the sand…..the lack of the participation in the election indicates many people have no faith in this interpretation of democracy anymore. But what are we to do ?
The grant from BEIS/DESNZ for 2022-23 was £6.4m. The Committee members mostly have several other jobs. I note their offices are at 1 Victoria St. BP Oil UK (refining and marketing) used to have their HQ there. They shared with DESNZ. Possibly both have now moved to 55 Whitehall.
The next report is due in September, which is probably tge ideal moment to dissect it.
"Why are we being managed and nudged by legions of parasitical apparatchiks?"
Perhaps, and this is only my belief, the main reason for this is that the global fiat currency system is nearing the point of total collapse and the political class are very aware of this. They also know if it collapses with the current societal systems in place, literally billions of people would be dead within 3 years. First from the initial violent chaos and then the famine and slow starvation. Rather than being honest about this [and really who would want to hear this] they are desperately trying to get the general population cowed into submission to accept all the control systems that might allow the political class to manage a form of controlled collapse.
If not this then something similar as there is certainly something going on that is not in the interests of most people.
Is something cannot continue it will not continue. I fear we are approaching that point now but what will emerge from the wreckage? It’s hard to be we will like the outcome.
But probably the same 20% of the electorate who voted for Starmer, approve of it. In my opinion, these are the same people who were affronted by the Brexit vote, that ‘The Deplorables’ would dare to go against what they, the FBPE types, regard as an ideal society. Since then they seem to have adopted a pro-Establishment (any establishment will do, its a uni-party anyway) stance, and will back it to the hilt as a kick in the teeth to those anti-establishment types. 🤷♀️
All the mainstream parties were following a similar trajectory and given peoples priorities are largely beyond energy it didn't get the challenge it demands. Reality is it won't really ever be an issue to people all the while they can drive their cars and run their house if your impinge on that they might wake up. This wont happen anytime soon as the ESO has the tools and more importantly unlimited consumers money to chuck at managing the system. Furthermore this lot will just manipulate the system to either move the subsides or absorb them into govt spending just so Millibrain can tell us he saved us £300/yr.
As an American who worked for years for BP and spent a lot of time in the UK (we even lived in Kew for a while) I care about the UK and wish there was cause for optimism. The UK is getting what it deserves, because you guys voted for these clowns. The USA got what it deserved the last 4 years because we voted for our own set of clowns. The profound foolishness of offshore wind is almost unbelievable. You don't need advanced mathematics to prove it: offshore wind in the Atlantic and the North Sea is stupid by inspection. About the only thing we can do is to continue to educate those people who will listen and hold our collective clowns accountable for the energy misery they are causing. This will unfortunately take years and a lot of human suffering, but there will eventually be a day of reckoning. Keep up the good fight. To quote one of my all time favorite people, "Never give up!"
Thank you, but only 21% population voted in this mess of Government! I agree with your points.
It seems the complaints to OFCOM about Justin Rowlatt's inaccurate costings of renewables didn't make the report bulletin this time which appears to have a cut off date of 19 July.
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/siteassets/resources/documents/about-ofcom/bulletins/broadcast-bulletins/2024/issue-503/issue-47-of-ofcoms-bulletin-for-complaints-about-bbc-online-material2.pdf
We'll need to check again in a couple of months when the next report is due. Perhaps a good way to force OFCOM's hand is to complain about similar material published by others.
I got another response rom the BBC last week. I have escalated to the next part of their complaint process.
Keep us posted...
It looks like I prodded an announcement. This was not there at 10:30 this morning.
https://www.cfdallocationround.uk/news/contracts-difference-allocation-round-6-update-auction-and-sealed-bid-window
I got an email from EMR Delivery Body timed 10:57 asking if I was a Qualified Applicant...
I replied pointing out that the public has a right to be kept properly informed, especially given the circumstances where there is doubt as to whether the permitted strike prices are high enough to spark the required interest.
Interesting comment re be ing able to recycle previous rounds into AR6. Im surmising this will largely be AR3 sites as they were c£40/MWh [2012 prices] and there was c5.5GW of offshore with a CfD. That means 1.4GW could be reallocated to AR6 [only 25% is allowed]. Assuming all this pursued this avenue that would take c400m of the pot away straight away. My inclination is they know all previous CfD owners have put their units into play which is why they've jacked up AR6 otherwise they could look extremely foolish. Even doing that will leave them (AR3 CfD's) well down on what the average wholesale price is anyhow so even then there is no guarantee they will take up their CfD from AR3 but im presuming would be obliged to honour the AR6 element if awarded.
Lets hope some decent journalists out there then challenge the govt over why we are now paying even more subsidy for that cheap wind they told they had procured!!
It's only AR4 sites that have been allowed to rebid capacity into AR6. See my comment here for more details
https://davidturver.substack.com/p/hello-darkness-my-old-friend/comment/64247300
Taking up a CFD is driven by the after tax position including the generator levy, which kicks in at £75/MWh. Current strike prices below that have the incentive to delay their CFD, even though they may find themselves in line for curtailment like Seagreen. The AR6 CFDs will not have a takeup delay option, which of course makes them less financially interesting. Triton Knoll finally commenced the remaining portion of their CFD after market prices fell back well below their strike price.
Presumably any of the AR3 windmills will never actualise their CfD contracts then?
Inflation gradually boosts the strike price. Rising capacity means more time being curtailed and lower returns to curtailment. The combination can leave the CFD the better option.
REMA beckons in the not too distant future which is an opportunity for a complete reset on pricing.
Arghh there is the AR4 sites as well another 6.9GW so 1.7GW eligible so thats another 500m and the pot would have been exhausted. Its pretty certain that existing bidders are going to be keaner on pricing so new build could be far less than Millibrain wants. Oh dear Houston we have a problem - lets see how Starkie is going to crack that one.
More of our money will always be his answer.
When do you think the Grid will start to fail regularly? Do you think this Government will actually last 5 years? Could a new conspiracy theory be that the current 'riots' are incited so that by the food riots in a few years time ,the mechanism for halting them is up and running?
Years away ESO have the tools and more importantly our money to chuck at managing the issue and to be fair they are very good at system mgt.
They also good at telling porkies - what they say in private is NOT what they say in public. - and now the Spectator AND Telegraph are reporting on it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/07/power-chiefs-fear-net-zero-blackouts-in-london/
and
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/can-the-grid-take-ed-milibands-net-zero-targets/
So 2028 or earlier?
Euronews thinks the grid may start failing in 2028. Next year, according to previous Eigen Values articles 'reliable generation' will start to fall below the peak demand values. I'm curious how given that for the 33rd consecutive day windmills/solar are still nowhere near meeting demand, are we going to avoid increasing reliance on Europe for imported energy to stop the Grid failing. As I post almost 15% of our demand is from Norway, Ireland and France. This is basically midsummer/Sunday - IF we need that much now, what happens mid-week mid-winter?
Agreed on the main point, but in fact they are very very bad at system management. What they are tolerably good at (because of a pliant media full to brimming with toadies instead of actual journalists) is hiding things from the public. The statements coming out of government and agencies charged with overseeing energy and auctions are quite awful in that if one had the desire and understanding of the recent past mandates and auction and pricing models, it would be obvious that they are lying.
Unaffordable energy...and rationed, unreliable energy too. This is deindustrialisation by the backdoor, which will result in utter disaster.
Thank you David for another gripping Sunday morning read. You have created your own genre of horror.
A clue may lie in the name of the influential CCC - an engineering-led Energy Systems Committee might have been better - it appears an at-all-costs mindset prevails, and the Committee is really a group of critics rather than prime-movers. ("Show me a monument to a critic.")
There is now a body of evidence from some US states and Germany, for example, that wind and solar do not provide low-cost, reliable power, because of all the associated costs well-known to your readers, even if turbines and photovoltaic panel were free with crisp packets. Sadly, evidence seems to consist of mass-less particles.
The only positive actions I can think of are spreading the word (thank you again) and lobbying elected representatives. Further down the track, and I expect it would go viral, I propose naming power blackouts "Milibands". Some politicians can be quite thin-skinned over their legacy.
My prophecy of the week is that in the future, maybe not that far ahead, we will wake up to find that India and China, currently notorious for burning coal like there's no tomorrow, have become world leaders in nuclear power and have cracked the cost issues. (And we in the West, could have done it but didn't.)
Oh they've doubled down on the CCC with Starkies Mission Control which strikes will have a philosophy akin to the NSDAP and just bully through whatever they want whenever any of the half rational organisations like the NESO or OFGEM challenge whats being proposed. ie OFGEM will run a consultation on the need for more grid investment (Beyond 2030) and attempt to question the necessity and timing of it and Starkie will just overrule them. Mind you expect the biggest abuse of power will be to now overrule any local planner that tries to stand in their way.
China and South Korea (and Russia) can already build nuclear power plants at about half the overnight costs of western countries. We over-regulate.
To be fair, it is a technology that needs clear operational regulation - some of our over-regulation I suspect is tied up with land availability/energy infrastructure planning, land use & planning opposition.
The inability of a politician to make a good reasoned intelligent decision that might look to the future of the UK needs rather that one that will be played on the current 24/7 hour news loop is an issue.
No. Most of it is triplicate systems that then interact in unexpected ways, requiring a further triplification to control them, coupled with insane standards like proofing against a ML9 earthquake that won't even be a remote chance in the UK for 200 million years if plate tectonics go badly. EdF have complained of 7,500 design modifications demanded by the ONR at Hinkley Point. Meanwhile KEPCO built 4 reactors of proven design ( and thus no need for mods) in UAE - 5.6GW for $25bn, well under the £33bn so far for 3.2GW at Hinkley Point.
As my mother used to say “Be sure your lies will find you out”. It’s popcorn time for the next few years watching Miliband wildly thrashing about trying to defy reality. https://metatron.substack.com/p/debunking-the-climate-change-hoax.
How can we stop this madness???
Relentless exposure and ridicule. As more people find out they have been lied to for decades, the backlash will be unstoppable.
Any criticism to the CO2 scam will soon be called Far Right
It’s the emperors clothes isn’t it?
As to ‘why’ Accipiter, IMHO apathy, ‘celebrity’ obsession with what’s happening on Love Island…. Heads in the sand…..the lack of the participation in the election indicates many people have no faith in this interpretation of democracy anymore. But what are we to do ?
I must admit, I have not looked at that. Maybe I should.
The latest accounts can be found here:
https://www.theccc.org.uk/publicationtype/6-corporate-plans-reports-accounts/
The grant from BEIS/DESNZ for 2022-23 was £6.4m. The Committee members mostly have several other jobs. I note their offices are at 1 Victoria St. BP Oil UK (refining and marketing) used to have their HQ there. They shared with DESNZ. Possibly both have now moved to 55 Whitehall.
The next report is due in September, which is probably tge ideal moment to dissect it.
"Why are we being managed and nudged by legions of parasitical apparatchiks?"
Perhaps, and this is only my belief, the main reason for this is that the global fiat currency system is nearing the point of total collapse and the political class are very aware of this. They also know if it collapses with the current societal systems in place, literally billions of people would be dead within 3 years. First from the initial violent chaos and then the famine and slow starvation. Rather than being honest about this [and really who would want to hear this] they are desperately trying to get the general population cowed into submission to accept all the control systems that might allow the political class to manage a form of controlled collapse.
If not this then something similar as there is certainly something going on that is not in the interests of most people.
How about , instead of global fiat currency system, replace with cheap energy, that is to say, oil?
Is something cannot continue it will not continue. I fear we are approaching that point now but what will emerge from the wreckage? It’s hard to be we will like the outcome.
But probably the same 20% of the electorate who voted for Starmer, approve of it. In my opinion, these are the same people who were affronted by the Brexit vote, that ‘The Deplorables’ would dare to go against what they, the FBPE types, regard as an ideal society. Since then they seem to have adopted a pro-Establishment (any establishment will do, its a uni-party anyway) stance, and will back it to the hilt as a kick in the teeth to those anti-establishment types. 🤷♀️
All the mainstream parties were following a similar trajectory and given peoples priorities are largely beyond energy it didn't get the challenge it demands. Reality is it won't really ever be an issue to people all the while they can drive their cars and run their house if your impinge on that they might wake up. This wont happen anytime soon as the ESO has the tools and more importantly unlimited consumers money to chuck at managing the system. Furthermore this lot will just manipulate the system to either move the subsides or absorb them into govt spending just so Millibrain can tell us he saved us £300/yr.