Where are the Quick Renewables?

Lapsed planning permissions and terminated CfDs mean renewables are not quick to deploy

Introduction

One argument that the Greens use against nuclear power is that it is “painfully slow”, implying that renewables are quick to deploy. Think tanks like Ember are forever talking about fast deployment of renewables. But is it really true that wind and solar are quick to deliver? I have done some digging into the Government’s Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD) and what has happened to the projects awarded Contracts for Difference (CfDs) under the various allocation rounds to find out.

Projects Granted Permission and Not Under Construction

The planning database contains a list of thousands of renewables projects dating back decades. We might expect there to be a delay between granting planning permission and construction start. Therefore, for the purposes of this analysis, only those projects granted permission between 2008 and 2020 have been analysed, selecting those that are not under construction and not operational. The results are shown in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1 - Renewables Projects Yet to Start Construction by Year of Planning Permission (MW)

There are about 4.6GW of onshore wind projects with planning permission granted between 2008 and 2020 that are yet to start construction. These comprise some 237 projects in total and for 130 of them the planning permission appears to have expired before June of this year. There are a further 48 projects with no planning permission expiry date listed, but the permission was granted more than four years ago so they are unlikely to go ahead.

Offshore wind has about 4GW of offshore wind projects: Seagreen, Inch Cape and Hornsea Project Three that have yet to start construction.

[Update 17th November 2024]: According to Crown Estate Data, Seagreen is operational, so there is an error in the REPD. [/Update]

There are also 62 dedicated biomass projects with planning permission and are yet to start construction with a combined capacity of 3.6GW. The vast bulk of these projects were granted permission in 2013 or before and therefore it is obvious they are not going to get built.

Similarly, there are nearly 2.9GW of solar projects granted permission in 2020 or before that are yet to begin construction. These comprise 340 projects and planning permission has expired for 271 of them, with a further 57 where the planning permission was granted more than four years ago but construction is yet to begin.

A further 2.1GW of Battery Storage and 2GW of pumped storage projects are waiting to be built. Advanced Conversion Technologies (ACT) appear to have died a death because all but one of the ACT projects granted a CfD have been terminated and the one remaining ACT project does not appear to have generated anything. Planning permission for most of the Energy from Waste (EfW) projects seems to have expired and the Swansea Tidal Lagoon project has not gone ahead.

It is almost as if planning permission is granted, then developers get cold feet and cannot follow through with their projects. The lack of available grid connection points might be part of the reason these projects do not go ahead. However, the requirement for lots of connections for low density energy sources like wind and solar is a feature of the technology, not a bug.

Performance of CfD Projects

As you might expect, there is quite a lot of overlap between the REPD and the CfD contracts that have been awarded. However, the various databases published by the Low Carbon Contract Company (LCCC) allow a more granular examination of the status. By far the largest technology for CfDs in terms of capacity is offshore wind followed by solar and onshore wind.

Offshore Wind CfD Performance

We can look at what has happened to all those contracts after they were announced with great fanfare. Let us start with offshore wind, see Figure 2.

[Update 18/11/2024] Figure 2 and supporting text updated to correct a glitch in the data [/Update]

Figure 2 - Offshore Wind Contract Disposition by Allocation Round (MW)

Starting with AR1, some 1,162MW of capacity was awarded in AR1 in 2015 and 705MW is now in operation at East Anglia One after being reduced by 9MW. 448MW of capacity is still being built at Neart Na Gaoithe (NNG). The site for this project was selected in 2008, won planning consent from Scottish Ministers in 2014 and a CfD in 2015. Construction began in 2020, but it is still unfinished. All 3.2GW of contracts awarded under AR2 in 2017 are in operation, with just 35MW of capacity reductions. Of the near 5.5GW of contracts awarded in AR3 during 2019, there have been 12MW of terminations and none have yet activated their CfD, although it is reported that Seagreen is in operation. AR4 took place in 2022 and the position is even worse; of the near 7GW of contracts awarded, there have been 1.37GW of capacity reductions. Some of the capacity reductions were re-bid at higher prices in this year’s AR6 auction. A further 1.4GW of contracts have been terminated which leaves only 4.2GW of the original 7GW still in progress, with none yet in operation. Of course, no offshore wind farms were awarded contracts in last year’s AR5 auction round.

Onshore Wind CfD Performance

The performance of onshore wind contracts is somewhat better as we can see in Figure 3.

Figure 3 - Onshore Wind Contract Disposition by Allocation Round (MW)

Of the 749MW of contracts awarded in AR1, 679MW are operating, with 69MW of capacity reductions. No onshore wind contracts were awarded in AR2 and AR3. Of the 888MW of capacity that won contracts in AR4, there have been 12MW of capacity reductions and 221MW of terminations, leaving just 654MW remaining with no projects yet operating. All 1,481MW of onshore wind contracts awarded in AR5 are still in progress.

We should note also that about 1,093MW of capacity has been awarded contracts under the category of Remote Island Wind from AR3 onwards. Of these, 120MW has been terminated. The CfD database shows that none of these projects are yet in operation, although it has been reported that the first 220MW of the Viking Wind Farm is now producing. The rest, some dating back to AR3 in 2019 are still in progress.

Solar Power CfD Performance

A total of 4,209MW of solar power plants have won CfD contracts since AR1, covering some 127 projects. As we can see in Figure 4, only two of these projects are live with a total of 23MW.

Figure 4 - Solar PV Contract Disposition by Allocation Round (MW)

These 23MW of projects were part of the original 72MW of contracts awarded in AR1 and a further 12MW have been terminated. The original 19MW Wick Farm solar park near Brean in Somerset, appears to never have been awarded a CfD contract and neither does the Royston Solar Farm. These have been treated as capacity reductions along with some other small reductions at other projects.

AR4 awarded 2,209MW of new solar capacity. Of these projects, 276MW have been terminated and there have been a further 73MW of capacity reductions. None of these projects are yet live with 1,860MW still in progress. Of the 1,928MW awarded in AR5, there have been 85MW of capacity reductions so far, with the remaining projects still in progress. It remains to be seen how many of the remaining projects from AR4 and AR5 will make it into production.

Conclusions

As we have seen, wind and solar renewables are far from quick to deploy. On the contrary, hundreds of projects have been granted planning permission only for the consent to lapse before construction begins. More than half of the offshore wind capacity that won contracts in AR4 has either reduced capacity or been cancelled. Significant chunks of onshore wind and solar projects have also been cancelled. There has to be a risk that some of the projects awarded contracts in last year’s AR5 round will get further capacity reductions or be cancelled altogether.

It is rather odd that most of the commentators report breathlessly on the results of the auction, but hardly a word is uttered when they do not fulfil their obligations. There is nothing about wind and solar renewables that suggests fast and reliable deployment. Just like we cannot rely upon their power generation if they do get built.

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