Everything About Net Zero is Fake

All the claims about Net Zero from the temperature record through catastrophic warming to cheap renewables and becoming a green energy superpower are fake

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"When the truth offends, we lie and lie until we can no longer remember it is even there."

“Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later that debt is paid.”

Attributed to Valery Legasov in the mini-series Chernobyl.

Introduction

There is a series of steps you must go through to conclude that Net Zero is a good idea which basically go like this. The Earth is warming because we are burning fossil fuels; the climate is extremely sensitive to changes in carbon dioxide concentrations and so we are facing a climate emergency which must be addressed by installing lots of cheap wind and solar power that will make us a green energy superpower with lots of green jobs in a green economic utopia.

The trouble is almost all the arguments used to support this line of reasoning are simply not based on truth. Western economies have been incurring this debt to the truth for at least two decades and now we are paying the price of Net Zero lies.

Before we begin and to avoid being called a “climate denier” I do believe that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and increasing concentrations will have a small impact on climate. The Stefan-Boltzmann Law indicates climate sensitivity to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration, without unproven feedbacks, is about 1 K (or 1^oC) which might be a problem, but is certainly not a crisis. It certainly does not justify total a rewiring of the economy.

Dodgy Temperature Record

The first problem is the temperature record itself. Over the years, Tony Heller has worked tirelessly to show how the global temperature record has been manipulated as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1 - Changes in GISS Global Temperature Anomaly

In 2005, the GISS global temperature record showed about 0.55 degrees of warming between 1910 and 2005. By 2013, the amount of warming between the same two dates had grown to 0.75 degrees. In effect, the past has been cooled and the present has been warmed to exaggerate the amount of warming that has occurred. HADCRUT also tripled the warming between 1998 and 2013 between versions 4 and 5.

This is not the full extent of the problem, because recent analysis of Met Office’s temperature record by Ray Sanders and Chris Morrison shows that it relies on dodgy weather stations. First, more than three quarters of the weather stations used by the Met Office are CIMO Class 4 or 5, meaning they have a margin of error of 2-5^oC. It is inconceivable that such weather stations can produce a temperature record accurate to less than one tenth of s degree. Second, some of the weather stations used by the Met Office no longer exist. For instance, Lowestoft weather station has been closed since 2010 and the data for Lowestoft has been synthesised from nearby stations since then. However, the nearest climate stations to Lowestoft, Hemsby (four miles away), Coltishall (25 miles), Scole (26 miles) and Morley St Botolph (30 miles) are all closed too. Third, newer weather stations are highly sensitive to transient spikes in air temperature. The alleged temperature record at RAF Coningsby in 2022 occurred just as three Typhoon fighter jets landed.

If the fundamental temperature records are questionable, then everything that is built on them is questionable too.

Faulty Climate Models and Flawed Climate Sensitivity

Some estimates of climate sensitivity derive from the instrumental record and these estimates must also be called into question because of the weaknesses identified above. These high estimates of climate sensitivity are then fed into climate models that consistently over-estimate global temperatures, see Figure 2 from the US Department of Energy’s Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate (p33).

Figure 2 - Comparison of Models and Observations of Global Temperature

Note that the low sensitivity (Low-ECS) column on the left more closely matches the observed temperature. The high sensitivity column (High-ECS) on the right over-estimates global temperatures. Note also that the amount of observed warming in the black lines from satellite measurements (UAH) is lower than all the instrumental records from HadCRUT, NOAA and GISTEM.

These faulty climate models are then fed with estimates of greenhouse gas emissions to create what are termed Representative Concentration Pathways. The high emissions scenarios such as RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 are then used to create scare stories about 4 or 5^oC of warming by 2100.

We now know these scenarios and their associated scare stories are fake because the IPCC has eliminated them from its analysis framework. This means that many thousands of scientific papers peddling climate catastrophe (maybe 97% of the total) were based on the false RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, the fake alarmism has caused 59% of young people to be “very r extremely worried” about climate change and 140+ central banks stress-tested their financial systems against it.

Fake Climate Emergency

The results of the faulty models, using fake emissions scenarios were used to justify the fake “Climate Emergency.” We know the Climate Emergency was built on a foundation of sand because even the IPCC has been unable to find much in the way of extreme Climate Impact Drivers (CIDs) even using the now withdrawn RCP8.5 (see Figure 3).

Figure 3 - IPCC Table 12-12 from Assessment Report Six (AR6)

The dark blue cells indicate a high confidence of an increase and they are only really confident of an increase in land and ocean temperatures and rising carbon dioxide concentrations. The dark orange cells indicate a high confidence in a decrease. They have found a reduction in lake, river and sea ice. The white cells indicate a “low confidence in the direction of change.” Even using the now discredited extreme RCP8.5 scenario, the white cells predominate which indicates they cannot find evidence of extreme weather to justify a climate emergency.

The DOE report linked above comes to the same conclusion, saying:

“Most types of extreme weather exhibit no statistically significant long-term trends over the available historical record.”

In addition, they found no trend in global major hurricane frequency or wildfires. As might be expected, the Climate Emergency narrative built on faulty models and fake emissions scenarios is also fake.

Net Zero Fantasy

The UK government legislated for Net Zero in response to the fake climate emergency. Sadly, UK Net Zero is also built on fantasy and deceit. First, as shown in Figure 4, the UK represents just 0.8% of global carbon dioxide emissions so whatever we do will not make a measurable impact on global climate.

Figure 4 - UK Emissions Compared to the Rest of the World

We are also supposed to believe that if the UK adopts Net Zero then the steady growth in global coal, oil and gas consumption since 1990 is going to miraculously reverse and fall at a much faster rate to zero by 2050, see Figure 5.

Figure 5 - World Coal, Oil and Gas Consumption (TWh)

This idea that the UK is influencing the rest of the world to adopt Net Zero is a complete fantasy.

The Cheap Renewables Lie

Perhaps in recognition of the fantastical underpinnings of Net Zero, the so-called energy transition to intermittent renewables is now being sold to us on the basis they are cheaper and more secure than reliable alternatives. But this is yet another lie built on all the other lies.

Some of the claims of “cheap renewables” are based on junk levelised cost of energy (LCOE) models. First, these models do not compare like-for-like because they ignore the value of dispatchable power plants that can match supply to demand. The output from wind and solar is dependent on the weather, not demand. Second, a series of implausible assumptions about capital costs, interest rates, asset life and load factors are used to flatter the cost of renewables.

We know the claims of cheap renewables are a lie because the UK has the most expensive industrial electricity prices in the developed world as shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6 - International Industrial Electricity Prices (p per kWh)

And we also know it is expensive renewables driving electricity prices so high as shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7 - Total Cost of Electricity by Technology and Subsidy Scheme £2025 Prices (£ per MWh)

Even the basic cost of most renewables is more expensive than gas (all 2025 prices). However, the cost of backup and balancing must also be added which makes all renewables more expensive than gas, even though gas is handicapped by carbon taxes. In addition, there are extra costs to expand the grid to connect remote renewables. The claim that transitioning to intermittent renewables will bring down electricity bills is a lie.

Clean Renewables Sleight of Hand

We are also told that wind and solar are sources of “clean power.” This is trivially true if the only metric considered is carbon dioxide emissions. However, if wider metrics like land use and mineral intensity are considered wind and solar score badly as shown in Figure 8.

Figure 8 - Overall Environmental Scores by Electricity Generation Technology

Wind and solar score particularly badly on land use and critical mineral usage. Clearly, wind and solar are not even particularly friendly to the environment and get even worse with added batteries. It has been reported that DESNZ has admitted in FOI responses that the rush to Net Zero will come at the expense of the environment. DESNZ admitted the plans may destroy 'nationally recognised sites, landscapes and historic environments' as well as damaging 'biodiversity and water resources'.

Although not strictly an environmental matter, it has now emerged that Ed Miliband has backtracked on his pledge to ban slave labour from its renewable supply chain. So now it is fine to damage the environment in the name of saving it and even slavery is allowed in the pursuit of Net Zero.

Green Industrial Revolution Mendacity

The other great falsehood peddled by the advocates of Net Zero is that transitioning to renewables will deliver a green industrial revolution or make Britain a green growth superpower. Back in 2009, Gordon Brown promised to add 400,000 new “green” jobs, taking the total to 1.3m by 2017. In another example of reality failing to live up to fantasy, the ONS estimates there are still only 304,000 jobs in the Low Carbon and Renewable Energy sector. Even the wider Environmental Goods and Services sector only supports 479,000 jobs and many of those are in things like waste water (25,600), water quality management (38,300) and waste (138,900) which would be there even if we were not pursuing Net Zero.

Data from the World Bank and Our World in Data shows many of our economic woes arise because our energy is too expensive, so we use 36% less energy per capita than in 2006. This has stifled economic growth, creating a yawning wealth gap of $14,730 per person compared to where we might have been if we had continued trend growth from 1990-2006 (see Figure 9).

Figure 9 - UK Real GDP vs Energy Use Per Capita (1990-2024)

Analysis of sector and industry-level productivity data from the ONS shows that cheap and abundant energy is a vital ingredient to drive productivity and growth as shown in Figure 10.

Figure 10 - Productivity vs Relative GVA Growth by Industry Sector (2008-2024)

The red quadrant shows sectors with above average productivity growing more slowly or shrinking in absolute terms compared to the whole economy. The manufacturing sector has grown at two thirds the rate of the whole economy, but the sector’s productivity is 122% of the whole economy. Included in this quadrant is mining and quarrying that contains oil and gas extraction where GVA has fallen in absolute terms by 7% over the period, yet productivity is 637% of the whole economy average. Energy production is a high-productivity sector, so it makes sense to grow it as fast as reasonably possible.

The red quadrant also includes energy intensive sectors like oil refining, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, which have much higher productivity, 384% and 292% of the average, respectively. Transport manufacturing, which includes making cars and buses is also a relatively high productivity sector at 141% of the whole economy average. Expensive energy caused by Net Zero policies has made these sectors grow more slowly than the whole economy. We are facing quite the opposite of a green industrial revolution; we are facing highly productive industries being sacrificed on the altar of Net Zero.

Fake Emissions Reductions

The government has claimed the UK has reduced emissions by 50% compared to 1990 levels. However, these figures cover only territorial emissions or emissions taking place within UK shores. Emissions in other countries to provide goods and services for the UK – called consumption emissions – are not covered.

If consumption emissions are considered, the reduction in emissions falls to just 26.9%, see Figure 11.

Figure 11 - UK Territorial and Consumption Emissions 1990-2024 (million tonnes) from OWID

In effect the UK has exported emissions, jobs and economic growth to other countries. The claims of massive reductions in emissions are fake.

Conclusions

It is clear that everything about Net Zero is fake. The temperature record is dodgy. The climate models are faulty. The most extreme warming scenarios have been withdrawn because even the most ardent alarmists can no longer promote them with a straight face. As a result, the Climate Emergency is also fake. This means that the whole Net Zero project has been justified on a false prospectus. Not only that, the claim that Net Zero will bring cheap renewables is a lie. The idea of a green industrial revolution has been exposed as a fantasy by the reality of energy-intensive industries shutting up shop and moving abroad. Even the claim of massive reductions in emissions is fake. Nothing about Net Zero is real.

Net Zero is a fib, wrapped in a falsehood inside a farrago of lies. Net Zero is peddled by tricksters, charlatans and shysters to scare the public into handing their money over to parasites sucking the lifeblood from the economy. It is time for reality to bite back, for Net Zero to be abandoned and the debt to truth to be repaid.

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